UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+160
-185
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+205
-220
+210
-220
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-177
+155
-170
+165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-125
+117
-125
+115
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+300
-390
+320
-350
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-180
+165
-175
+160
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-210
+190
-210
+195
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-150
+137
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1100
+800
-1000
+800
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-136
+120
-135
+125
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+145
-167
+140
-150
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+350
-445
+375
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rafael Alves
Marc Diakiese		36.3%
63.7%
+244
-245
+240
-260
Win
Loss		-1.23629-1.23998-1.01261
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Da-Un Jung		40.4%
59.6%
+106
-117
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.64204-0.62755-0.51780
Colby Covington
Kamaru Usman		37.6%
62.4%
+240
-285
+255
-280
Loss
Win		-0.33455-0.32375-0.47173
Zhang Weili
Rose Namajunas		54.3%
45.7%
-110
-110
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.74028-0.78244
Frankie Edgar
Marlon Vera		45.2%
54.8%
+135
-146
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54056-0.54173-0.60124
Billy Quarantillo
Shane Burgos		35.2%
64.8%
+160
-164
+155
-150
Loss
Win		-0.48190-0.50296-0.43388
Michael Chandler
Justin Gaethje		27.5%
72.5%
+180
-205
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42615-0.41146-0.32225
Andreas Michailidis
Alex Pereira		36.2%
63.8%
+220
-250
+215
-230
Loss
Win		-0.36291-0.37533-0.44920
Al Iaquinta
Bobby Green		47.3%
52.7%
+170
-190
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.45497-0.63985
Chris Curtis
Phillip Hawes		29.9%
70.1%
+285
-290
+255
-290
Win
Loss		-1.35139-1.29193-1.20587
Nassourdine Imavov
Edmen Shahbazyan		49.6%
50.4%
-110
+105
-120
+105
Win
Loss		-0.65817-0.63885-0.70209
Jordan Williams
Ian Garry		33.2%
66.8%
+315
-400
+350
-370
Loss
Win		-0.26329-0.24864-0.40318
Gian Villante
Chris Barnett		49.6%
50.4%
-110
+100
-120
+105
Loss
Win		-0.71668-0.75056-0.68573
John Allan
Dustin Jacoby		31.0%
69.0%
+300
-370
+320
-355
Loss
Win		-0.27579-0.26634-0.37111
Bruno Souza
Melsik Baghdasaryan		31.0%
69.0%
+300
-360
+310
-350
Loss
Win		-0.27720-0.27275-0.37111
Ode Osbourne
CJ Vergara		58.3%
41.7%
-200
+177
-185
+175
Win
Loss		-0.43277-0.44482-0.53957
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57910 
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57456 
DRatings1410-4 (0.714)0-0.55019
0.02892
0.02438

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.