UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+165
-185
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+205
-220
+210
-220
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-175
+160
-160
+160
Volatility Bet Value Active
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-125
+108
-115
+115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+300
-390
+320
-350
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-175
+155
-160
+160
Volatility Bet Value Active
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-210
+182
-210
+190
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-150
+135
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1200
+950
-1200
+800
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-135
+120
-130
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+135
-150
+135
-150
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+350
-445
+375
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Glover Teixeira
Jan Blachowicz		22.3%
77.7%
+235
-260
+250
-250
Win
Loss		-1.22946-1.25278-1.50090
Cory Sandhagen
Petr Yan		20.6%
79.4%
+220
-255
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.36120-0.35364-0.23099
Dan Hooker
Islam Makhachev		25.4%
74.6%
+385
-450
+375
-430
Loss
Win		-0.22474-0.23071-0.29269
Marcin Tybura
Alexander Volkov		29.3%
70.7%
+255
-270
+235
-260
Loss
Win		-0.32644-0.34595-0.34605
Jingliang Li
Khamzat Chimaev		19.5%
80.5%
+400
-435
+400
-420
Loss
Win		-0.21992-0.22123-0.21655
Volkan Oezdemir
Magomed Ankalaev		38.0%
62.0%
+276
-336
+300
-330
Loss
Win		-0.29648-0.28198-0.47797
Amanda Ribas
Virna Jandiroba		53.0%
47.0%
-162
+150
-155
+140
Win
Loss		-0.49890-0.52206-0.63524
Ricardo Ramos
Zubaira Tukhugov		28.3%
71.7%
+145
-160
+145
-160
Loss
Win		-0.50878-0.50878-0.33292
Benoit Saint Denis
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos		22.7%
77.3%
+235
-250
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34919-0.34163-0.25744
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Shamil Gamzatov		31.9%
68.1%
-110
-103
-120
+105
Win
Loss		-0.67735-0.63885-1.14285
Makwan Amirkhani
Lerone Murphy		37.2%
62.8%
+233
-270
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34466-0.34163-0.46565
Hu Yaozong
Andre Petroski		26.9%
73.1%
+185
-213
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41582-0.40573-0.31326
Allan Nascimento
Tagir Ulanbekov		26.9%
73.1%
+300
-365
+330
-375
Loss
Win		-0.27649-0.25819-0.31326
Paulo Costa
Marvin Vettori		54.1%
45.9%
+170
-181
+170
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45426-0.45869-0.77932
Rick Glenn
Grant Dawson		21.1%
78.9%
+390
-480
+400
-450
Draw
Draw		-0.92041-0.92307-0.89656
Joselyne Edwards
Jessica-Rose Clark		37.4%
62.6%
+140
-145
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53299-0.53299-0.46825
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57910 
Sportsbooks149-5 (0.643)0-0.57456 
DRatings1410-4 (0.714)0-0.55019
0.02892
0.02438

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.