UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+165
-185
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+205
-220
+200
-220
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-170
+153
-160
+160
Volatility Bet Value Active
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-110
+107
-105
+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+300
-390
+320
-350
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-175
+155
-160
+160
Volatility Bet Value Active
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-210
+182
-210
+190
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-150
+135
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1200
+875
-1200
+800
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-131
+120
-130
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+140
-155
+135
-150
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+350
-445
+375
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Alex Caceres
SeungWoo Choi		29.7%
70.3%
+230
-230
+230
-225
Win
Loss		-1.19392-1.18925-1.21385
Francisco Trinaldo
Dwight Grant		54.0%
46.0%
-127
+115
-120
+110
Win
Loss		-0.60506-0.62755-0.61617
Ike Villanueva
Nicolae Negumereanu		42.5%
57.5%
+215
-235
+220
-230
Loss
Win		-0.37333-0.37044-0.55415
Gregory Rodrigues
Junyong Park		54.4%
45.6%
-128
+125
-125
+115
Win
Loss		-0.58315-0.60825-0.60901
Jamie Pickett
Laureano Staropoli		36.9%
63.1%
+170
-200
+180
-185
Win
Loss		-1.02963-1.03586-0.99677
Jai Herbert
Khama Worthy		53.8%
46.2%
-151
+155
-165
+160
Win
Loss		-0.50192-0.48102-0.61999
Randa Markos
Livinha Souza		41.4%
58.6%
+110
-115
+115
-120
Win
Loss		-0.75294-0.77596-0.88088
Norma Dumont
Aspen Ladd		29.4%
70.6%
+122
-125
+122
-130
Win
Loss		-0.80350-0.81306-1.22475
Carlos Felipe
Andrei Arlovski		56.9%
43.1%
-110
+110
-115
+102
Loss
Win		-0.74194-0.73260-0.84070
Erick Gonzalez
Jim Miller		31.6%
68.4%
+260
-300
+245
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31508-0.33173-0.37927
Mayra Bueno Silva
Manon Fiorot		36.5%
63.5%
+280
-310
+275
-300
Loss
Win		-0.29866-0.30422-0.45408
Nate Landwehr
Ludovit Klein		37.9%
62.1%
+300
-350
+320
-345
Win
Loss		-1.41371-1.44834-0.96943
Andrew Sanchez
Bruno Silva		51.2%
48.8%
+145
-155
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.51371-0.51371-0.71662
Danny Roberts
Ramazan Emeev		24.3%
75.7%
+265
-280
+280
-325
Win
Loss		-1.30549-1.36250-1.41486
Luana Carolina
Loopy Godinez		56.0%
44.0%
+205
-220
+190
-217
Win
Loss		-1.13038-1.09365-0.57980
Brandon Davis
Batgerel Danaa		40.3%
59.7%
+120
-132
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.58717-0.56639-0.51599
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.56322 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.56071 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.54093
0.02229
0.01978

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.