UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+165
-180
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+189
-210
+190
-210
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-160
+145
-160
+150
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-110
-105
-105
+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+350
-390
+360
-420
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-165
+150
-165
+155
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-215
+185
-210
+195
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-150
+135
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-900
+825
-850
+700
Overall Bet Value Active
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-130
+115
-130
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+145
-161
+140
-155
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+350
-445
+375
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Istela Nunes
Ariane Carnelossi		33.9%
66.1%
+122
-130
+125
-135
Loss
Win		-0.58609-0.57304-0.41352
Marina Rodriguez
Mackenzie Dern		48.4%
51.6%
+190
-200
+180
-200
Win
Loss		-1.07614-1.05317-0.72495
Jared Gooden
Randy Brown		26.8%
73.2%
+270
-300
+270
-275
Loss
Win		-0.30775-0.31375-0.31139
Matheus Nicolau
Tim Elliott		62.1%
37.9%
-178
+170
-175
+170
Win
Loss		-0.45643-0.45869-0.47710
Sabina Mazo
Mariya Agapova		60.9%
39.1%
-200
+190
-200
+180
Loss
Win		-1.07614-1.05317-0.93928
Felipe Colares
Chris Gutierrez		23.4%
76.6%
+245
-250
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34060-0.35037-0.26682
Jared Vanderaa
Alexandr Romanov		23.1%
76.9%
+415
-525
+450
-525
Loss
Win		-0.20795-0.19594-0.26329
Charles Rosa
Damon Jackson		41.3%
58.7%
+190
-210
+185
-200
Loss
Win		-0.41146-0.42286-0.53239
Silvana Gomez Juarez
Loopy Godinez		27.9%
72.1%
+365
-350
+330
-300
Loss
Win		-0.24411-0.27009-0.32695
Charlie Ontiveros
Steve Garcia		28.9%
71.1%
+290
-325
+300
-320
Loss
Win		-0.28916-0.28377-0.34115
Johnny Walker
Thiago Santos		39.4%
60.6%
+125
-145
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.56016-0.54782-0.50045
Niko Price
Alex Oliveira		53.9%
46.1%
-200
+190
-195
+175
Win
Loss		-0.41690-0.43833-0.61828
Misha Cirkunov
Krzysztof Jotko		24.7%
75.3%
+100
-116
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.65805-0.61904-0.28405
Jared Gordon
Joe Solecki		35.5%
64.5%
+125
-121
+120
-125
Win
Loss		-0.80285-0.79851-1.03516
Antonina Shevchenko
Casey O'Neill		44.0%
56.0%
+234
-220
+240
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36150-0.34831-0.57955
Bethe Correia
Karol Rosa		32.6%
67.4%
+625
-700
+585
-600
Loss
Win		-0.14638-0.15727-0.39402
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks74-3 (0.571)0-0.71456 
Sportsbooks74-3 (0.571)0-0.71143 
DRatings75-2 (0.714)0-0.66967
0.04489
0.04176

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.