UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Court McGee
Tim Means 		41.9%
58.1%
+185
-205
+170
-190
Ovince Saint Preux
Ryan Spann 		28.4%
71.6%
+182
-205
+190
-200
Tecia Pennington
Carla Esparza 		53.0%
47.0%
-155
+145
-160
+150
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-108
-104
-110
-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+355
-450
+360
-420
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-165
+146
-162
+150
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-210
+182
-200
+195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-147
+133
-150
+135
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1000
+700
-900
+700
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-130
+112
-130
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+140
-159
+135
-155
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+370
-446
+370
-420
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Devonte Smith
Jamie Mullarkey		61.9%
38.1%
-150
+140
-140
+130
Loss
Win		-0.89199-0.85085-0.96451
Gaetano Pirrello
Douglas Silva de Andrade		26.6%
73.4%
+235
-260
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34595-0.35037-0.30904
Johnny Eduardo
Alejandro Perez		33.1%
66.9%
+244
-250
+230
-255
Loss
Win		-0.34145-0.35197-0.40269
Brian Ortega
Alexander Volkanovski		29.4%
70.6%
+170
-174
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.45947-0.44150-0.34745
Lauren Murphy
Valentina Shevchenko		18.4%
81.6%
+950
-1380
+900
-1400
Loss
Win		-0.09726-0.10178-0.20273
Nick Diaz
Robbie Lawler		40.3%
59.7%
+150
-155
+140
-155
Loss
Win		-0.50566-0.52206-0.51527
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Curtis Blaydes		25.8%
74.2%
+270
-330
+280
-315
Loss
Win		-0.30171-0.29765-0.29895
Cynthia Calvillo
Jessica Andrade		34.3%
65.7%
+200
-205
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.40275-0.41690-0.41942
Merab Dvalishvili
Marlon Moraes		58.4%
41.6%
-275
+254
-270
+265
Win
Loss		-0.32585-0.31877-0.53861
Nasrat Haqparast
Dan Hooker		38.0%
62.0%
+135
-145
+130
-140
Loss
Win		-0.54173-0.55696-0.47760
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Chris Daukaus		35.8%
64.2%
+185
-205
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42006-0.41146-0.44323
Roxanne Modafferi
Taila Santos		20.8%
79.2%
+325
-380
+350
-420
Loss
Win		-0.26021-0.24305-0.23353
Jalin Turner
Uros Medic		46.1%
53.9%
+110
-120
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.76336-0.76336-0.77510
Cody Brundage
Nick Maximov		55.0%
45.0%
+130
-140
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.55696-0.56639-0.79813
Martin Sano
Matthew Semelsberger		20.6%
79.4%
+450
-530
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.19567-0.20586-0.23051
Jonathan Pearce
Omar Morales		33.4%
66.6%
+135
-150
+140
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87962-0.88394-1.09772
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.