UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Alexander Hernandez
Austin Hubbard 		66.0%
34.0%
-105
-110
+100
-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Iasmin Lucindo
Marina Rodriguez 		59.7%
40.3%
-170
+150
-162
+150
Joaquin Buckley
Stephen Thompson 		62.8%
37.2%
-209
+182
-200
+195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-1000
+725
-900
+700
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-145
+130
-150
+135
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-133
+117
-125
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+147
-160
+135
-155
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+370
-450
+360
-400
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Fights In Progress

TimeFightersOrig.
Win %		Closing
ML
Ihor Potieria
Cesar Almeida 		30.8%
69.2%
+370
-450
+375
-440

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cody Brundage
Nick Maximov		55.0%
45.0%
+130
-140
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.55696-0.56639-0.79813
Martin Sano
Matthew Semelsberger		20.6%
79.4%
+450
-530
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.19567-0.20586-0.23051
Jonathan Pearce
Omar Morales		33.4%
66.6%
+135
-150
+140
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87962-0.88394-1.09772
Ryan Spann
Anthony Smith		39.3%
60.7%
+130
-145
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55080-0.54173-0.49942
Ariane Lipski
Mandy Bohm		53.5%
46.5%
-125
+120
-125
+120
Win
Loss		-0.59784-0.59784-0.62487
Christos Giagos
Arman Tsarukyan		23.0%
77.0%
+620
-800
+575
-780
Loss
Win		-0.14519-0.15456-0.26112
Nate Maness
Tony Gravely		35.4%
64.6%
+175
-190
+175
-180
Win
Loss		-1.03022-1.01807-1.03936
Antonio Arroyo
Joaquin Buckley		30.8%
69.2%
+160
-180
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.46893-0.48102-0.36853
Mike Rodriguez
Tafon Nchukwi		45.4%
54.6%
+105
-125
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.63023-0.61904-0.60464
Raquel Pennington
Pannie Kianzad		52.0%
48.0%
-125
+120
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.59784-0.59012-0.65489
JP Buys
Montel Jackson		19.2%
80.8%
+480
-600
+525
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18327-0.17114-0.21324
Erin Blanchfield
Sarah Alpar		64.2%
35.8%
-420
+360
-400
+350
Win
Loss		-0.23835-0.24512-0.44272
Carlston Harris
Impa Kasanganay		33.2%
66.8%
-105
-101
-115
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68363-0.66000-1.10319
Gustavo Lopez
Heili Alateng		26.0%
74.0%
+118
-130
+115
-125
Draw
Draw		-0.69858-0.69708-0.82450
Hannah Goldy
Emily Whitmire		55.9%
44.1%
+107
-125
+108
-125
Win
Loss		-0.76548-0.76804-0.58153
Derek Brunson
Darren Till		42.8%
57.2%
+140
-145
+132
-140
Win
Loss		-0.88394-0.85583-0.84947
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.64842 
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.63507 
DRatings32-1 (0.667)0-0.61306
0.03536
0.02201

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.