UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 5, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kevin Holland
Roman Dolidze 		54.2%
45.8%
-140
+140
-150
+130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Mario Bautista
Jose Aldo 		61.4%
38.6%
-130
+115
-125
+120
Julianna Pena
Raquel Pennington 		38.0%
62.0%
+140
-151
+135
-155
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+395
-460
+400
-400
Volatility Bet Value Active
Fights for Oct 4, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Fights In Progress

TimeFightersOrig.
Win %		Closing
ML
Kayla Harrison
Ketlen Vieira 		75.2%
24.8%
-900
+700
-950
+700

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Carlston Harris
Impa Kasanganay		33.2%
66.8%
-105
-101
-115
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68363-0.66000-1.10319
Gustavo Lopez
Heili Alateng		26.0%
74.0%
+118
-130
+115
-125
Draw
Draw		-0.69858-0.69708-0.82450
Hannah Goldy
Emily Whitmire		55.9%
44.1%
+107
-125
+108
-125
Win
Loss		-0.76548-0.76804-0.58153
Derek Brunson
Darren Till		42.8%
57.2%
+140
-145
+132
-140
Win
Loss		-0.88394-0.85583-0.84947
Serghei Spivac
Tom Aspinall		28.9%
71.1%
+225
-220
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36988-0.38995-0.34173
Alex Morono
David Zawada		69.0%
31.0%
-125
+110
-125
+110
Win
Loss		-0.61904-0.61904-0.37098
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Modestas Bukauskas		46.7%
53.3%
+145
-149
+150
-160
Win
Loss		-0.90263-0.93156-0.76089
Luigi Vendramini
Paddy Pimblett		43.8%
56.2%
+135
-144
+140
-150
Loss
Win		-0.54294-0.52736-0.57593
Ji Yeon Kim
Molly McCann		43.2%
56.8%
+105
-120
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.63885-0.63885-0.56493
Liudvik Sholinian
Jack Shore		23.4%
76.6%
+475
-600
+500
-600
Loss
Win		-0.18473-0.17768-0.26600
Julian Erosa
Charles Jourdain		51.6%
48.4%
+165
-185
+170
-190
Win
Loss		-1.00068-1.01846-0.66229
Marc-Andre Barriault
Dalcha Lungiambula		55.0%
45.0%
-157
+150
-165
+150
Win
Loss		-0.50367-0.49617-0.59715
Edson Barboza
Giga Chikadze		44.2%
55.8%
-125
+108
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.76804-0.77319-0.58293
Bryan Battle
Gilbert Urbina		64.6%
35.4%
-195
+185
-200
+190
Win
Loss		-0.42580-0.41690-0.43748
Brady Hiestand
Ricky Turcios		59.9%
40.1%
+135
-126
+140
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56717-0.54540-0.91302
Kevin Lee
Daniel Rodriguez		47.8%
52.2%
-132
+125
-140
+125
Loss
Win		-0.82426-0.83833-0.64982
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks75-2 (0.714)0-0.53782 
Sportsbooks75-2 (0.714)0-0.53760 
DRatings76-1 (0.857)0-0.51513
0.02269
0.02247

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.