UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 6, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alex Pereira 		26.1%
73.9%
+385
-450
+375
-420
Fights for Oct 5, 2024
Fights for Oct 12, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Edson Barboza
Giga Chikadze		44.2%
55.8%
-125
+108
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.76804-0.77319-0.58293
Bryan Battle
Gilbert Urbina		64.6%
35.4%
-195
+185
-200
+190
Win
Loss		-0.42580-0.41690-0.43748
Brady Hiestand
Ricky Turcios		59.9%
40.1%
+135
-126
+140
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56717-0.54540-0.91302
Kevin Lee
Daniel Rodriguez		47.8%
52.2%
-132
+125
-140
+125
Loss
Win		-0.82426-0.83833-0.64982
Micheal Gillmore
Andre Petroski		13.0%
87.0%
+400
-500
+400
-470
Loss
Win		-0.21511-0.21717-0.13939
Gerald Meerschaert
Makhmud Muradov		30.0%
70.0%
+455
-620
+500
-555
Win
Loss		-1.75423-1.80564-1.20334
Alessio Di Chirico
Abdul Razak Alhassan		80.2%
19.8%
-225
+210
-245
+220
Loss
Win		-1.14618-1.18554-1.61747
Sam Alvey
Wellington Turman		43.4%
56.6%
+102
-120
+105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.64584-0.65817-0.56906
Darren Stewart
Dustin Jacoby		27.6%
72.4%
+169
-194
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.44685-0.43510-0.32321
Vanessa Demopoulos
JJ Aldrich		21.3%
78.7%
+345
-440
+390
-400
Loss
Win		-0.24356-0.22721-0.23944
Patrick Sabatini
Jamall Emmers		42.4%
57.6%
+140
-145
+131
-146
Win
Loss		-0.88394-0.86330-0.85753
Guido Cannetti
Mana Martinez		27.8%
72.2%
+250
-300
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.32277-0.32768-0.32545
Kelvin Gastelum
Jared Cannonier		37.8%
62.2%
+130
-145
+135
-135
Loss
Win		-0.55080-0.55431-0.47539
Clay Guida
Mark Madsen		32.6%
67.4%
+145
-170
+155
-170
Loss
Win		-0.49972-0.48418-0.39414
Parker Porter
Chase Sherman		35.9%
64.1%
+173
-195
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-1.03125-1.03022-1.02488
Trevin Jones
Terrance McKinney		55.0%
45.0%
-154
+145
-150
+145
Loss
Win		-0.91046-0.90421-0.79813
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks117-4 (0.636)0-0.56415 
Sportsbooks117-4 (0.636)0-0.56481 
DRatings118-3 (0.727)0-0.55712
0.00703
0.00769

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.