German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
VfL Bochum
Union Berlin 		14.2%
67.0%		18.7%
+305
+102
+320
-105
0.92
2.24		3.16
o2½-108
u2½-106
o2½+110
u2½-115
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eintracht Frankfurt 		42.4%
32.7%		24.8%
+122
+241
+120
+220
1.53
1.32		2.85
o2½-119
u2¾-122
o2½-120
u2½+120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Mainz 05
FC Heidenheim 		42.5%
31.7%		25.8%
+150
+188
+140
+191
1.44
1.22		2.66
o2¾-101
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+120
Games for May 4, 2024
Games for May 10, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
FC Koln		36.0%
37.9%		26.1%
+193
+145
+190
+139
0
0		-1.33382-1.33128-1.34408
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		65.8%
15.6%		18.5%
+160
+165
+190
+155
1
3		-0.99277-0.92299-1.85579
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		41.0%
34.0%		25.0%
+235
+115
+220
+120
2
2		-1.36924-1.34500-1.38790
Augsburg
Dortmund		12.4%
71.3%		16.3%
+243
+104
+240
+105
1
5		-0.73482-0.73491-0.33869
Darmstadt 98
Wolfsburg		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+864
-315
+850
-310
0
3		-0.30716-0.32281-0.51955
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim		44.0%
31.4%		24.7%
-190
+440
-200
+425
1
1		-1.71920-1.72783-1.39922
FC Heidenheim
Darmstadt 98		23.8%
53.1%		23.1%
+118
+229
+118
+220
1
0		-0.80824-0.82351-1.43418
FC Koln
Mainz 05		24.7%
52.4%		22.9%
+490
-170
+490
-177
1
1		-1.50765-1.49884-1.47338
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		24.3%
52.4%		23.3%
+186
+160
+188
+150
0
0		-1.27257-1.26429-1.45856
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		12.8%
70.3%		16.9%
+316
-118
+310
-120
2
2		-1.43624-1.41535-1.77537
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		17.0%
62.5%		20.5%
+225
+132
+215
+125
2
1		-1.19885-1.18633-1.77237
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		25.0%
51.8%		23.1%
+370
-139
+353
-125
3
0		-1.56791-1.52225-1.38466
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		7.1%
81.3%		11.6%
+560
-218
+535
-230
1
2		-0.40366-0.39988-0.20689
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		22.4%
56.0%		21.6%
+430
-175
+420
-150
1
4		-0.48070-0.51146-0.58014
Hoffenheim
VfL Bochum		41.0%
33.9%		25.0%
+217
+115
+200
+115
2
3		-0.79200-0.81159-1.08134
Mainz 05
Freiburg		20.1%
58.2%		21.7%
+145
+203
+140
+192
1
1		-1.28663-1.28620-1.52661
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-0.94756 
Sportsbooks53-0-2 (0.800)0-0.93140 
DRatings52-1-2 (0.600)0-1.08920
-0.14164
-0.15780

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/28/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (25-0-6, 81 pts)26.60.66.886.7100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (22-6-3, 69 pts)23.96.53.675.30.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (20-7-4, 64 pts)20.88.44.867.30.0%97.8%2.2%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (19-7-5, 62 pts)20.57.75.867.30.0%97.2%2.8%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (16-6-9, 57 pts)17.46.89.961.90.0%5.0%95.0%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-8-12, 45 pts)11.89.412.848.30.0%0.0%86.7%0.0%0.0%
7Freiburg (11-13-7, 40 pts)12.413.87.845.00.0%0.0%11.3%0.0%0.0%
8Augsburg (10-12-9, 39 pts)10.813.39.942.30.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%
9Hoffenheim (11-14-6, 39 pts)11.815.56.742.20.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
10FC Heidenheim (9-12-10, 37 pts)9.713.510.839.90.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
11Werder Bremen (10-14-7, 37 pts)10.815.37.840.30.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (9-15-7, 34 pts)9.816.47.837.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%
13Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-11, 32 pts)8.313.911.936.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
14Union Berlin (8-17-6, 30 pts)9.218.06.834.30.0%0.0%0.0%18.8%1.0%
15VfL Bochum (6-13-12, 30 pts)6.814.412.833.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.5%1.3%
16Mainz 05 (5-13-13, 28 pts)6.314.013.832.60.0%0.0%0.0%37.1%2.4%
17FC Koln (4-16-11, 23 pts)5.017.211.826.80.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%95.3%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-20-8, 17 pts)3.821.38.920.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.