Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 6, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Napoli
Udinese 		44.6%
29.1%		26.3%
+107
+275
+102
+260
1.44
1.11		2.55
o2½-115
u2½+104
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for May 5, 2024
Games for May 10, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Juventus
Roma 		32.6%
39.7%		27.7%
+162
+201
+160
+192
2.39
o2¼-105
u2½-133
o2-130
u2+125
TIME
HALF		1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Milan		12.7%
68.3%		19.0%
+670
-230
+670
-225
3
3		-1.63594-1.62328-1.66057
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		36.3%
35.8%		27.9%
+128
+260
+130
+243
1
2		-1.30287-1.27065-1.02823
Frosinone
Empoli		23.6%
51.0%		25.4%
+208
+152
+209
+155
0
0		-1.22878-1.19102-1.37204
Inter
Sassuolo		69.2%
13.0%		17.7%
-189
+520
-188
+470
0
1		-1.84706-1.78064-2.03753
Lazio
Monza		35.6%
36.6%		27.8%
-118
+362
-120
+350
2
2		-1.35565-1.31513-1.27970
Bologna
Torino		24.2%
51.2%		24.6%
+205
+179
+195
+187
0
0		-1.10679-1.09184-1.40283
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		15.5%
65.2%		19.3%
+535
-167
+520
-165
1
5		-0.48843-0.49837-0.42820
Empoli
Atalanta		7.2%
80.2%		12.6%
+600
-200
+615
-220
0
2		-0.42751-0.41491-0.22051
Roma
Napoli		23.5%
52.5%		23.9%
+301
-102
+300
-105
2
2		-1.33264-1.32013-1.42941
Udinese
Bologna		26.9%
47.7%		25.4%
+540
-154
+515
-165
1
1		-1.37011-1.38226-1.37129
Torino
Inter		7.2%
78.9%		13.9%
+590
-173
+575
-190
0
2		-0.47278-0.46844-0.23685
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.4%
63.1%		20.5%
+500
-161
+485
-155
0
1		-0.50732-0.52562-0.46085
Milan
Juventus		26.8%
46.7%		26.5%
+280
+119
+270
+115
0
0		-1.23756-1.23162-1.32682
Roma
Udinese		40.8%
32.1%		27.1%
+292
+386

2
1		-1.40597-0.89771
Inter
Milan		37.2%
34.8%		28.0%
+107
+284
+105
+270
2
1		-0.74488-0.75683-0.99021
Bologna
Roma		14.7%
66.0%		19.3%
+265
+140
+241
+135
3
1		-1.31308-1.26723-1.91909
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.38920 
Sportsbooks30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.36165 
DRatings30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.35361
0.03558
0.00804

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.