MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-31)
New York Yankees (31-15)
Brad Keller
Luis Gil
24.8%
75.2%
+258
-294
+257
-290
+1½+127
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-140
2.41
5.05
7.46
o8+100
u8-108
o8-115
u8-105
Pittsburgh Pirates (21-25)
Chicago Cubs (25-21)
Bailey Falter
Shota Imanaga
35.5%
64.5%
+182
-192
+181
-190
+1½-123
-1½+107
+1½-120
-1½+110
2.93
4.44
7.37
o8-120
u8½-108
o8-120
u8+100
Tampa Bay Rays (24-22)
Toronto Blue Jays (19-24)
Zach Eflin
Kevin Gausman
42.7%
57.3%
+118
-127
+121
-127
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-180
-1½+162
3.58
4.35
7.93
o7½-113
u7½-103
o7½-115
u8-120
Colorado Rockies (15-29)
San Francisco Giants (21-25)
Ty Blach
Kyle Harrison
35.1%
64.9%
+168
-175
+172
-180
+1½-130
-1½+122
+1½-130
-1½+115
3.12
4.67
7.79
o8-113
u8½-120
o8-115
u8-105
Seattle Mariners (24-21)
Baltimore Orioles (28-14)
Luis Castillo
UNDEDICED Undecided
47.0%
53.0%
-110
-110
-105
-105
-1½+160
+1½-185
-1½+160
+1½-180
3.82
4.14
7.96
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
New York Mets (20-24)
Miami Marlins (14-32)
Luis Severino
Braxton Garrett
53.3%
46.7%
-121
+113
-120
+115
-1½+137
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-150
4.41
4.07
8.48
o7½+102
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
Washington Nationals (20-23)
Philadelphia Phillies (32-14)
MacKenzie Gore
Cristopher Sánchez
38.0%
62.0%
+160
-170
+155
-167
+1½-138
-1½+122
+1½-140
-1½+128
3.55
4.82
8.37
o7-118
u7+102
o7-120
u7½-120
Minnesota Twins (24-20)
Cleveland Guardians (28-17)
Bailey Ober
Logan Allen
52.5%
47.5%
-113
+106
-114
+105
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-164
4.26
4.00
8.26
o7-115
u7½-118
o7½+105
u7½-120
Oakland Athletics (19-28)
Kansas City Royals (27-19)
Ross Stripling
Seth Lugo
34.6%
65.4%
+165
-174
+165
-178
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-128
-1½+110
3.25
4.86
8.11
o9-120
u9+107
o9-115
u9½-120
Milwaukee Brewers (26-18)
Houston Astros (20-25)
Bryse Wilson
Justin Verlander
44.1%
55.9%
+156
-159
+155
-164
+1½-140
-1½+127
+1½-139
-1½+121
3.45
4.07
7.52
o8½+100
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (23-24)
Atlanta Braves (26-15)
Yu Darvish
Bryce Elder
42.5%
57.5%
+103
-112
+108
-116
+1½-193
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.33
5.12
9.45
o8½-120
u8½+110
o8½-110
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (17-28)
Texas Rangers (23-23)
Patrick Sandoval
José Ureña
41.0%
59.0%
+122
-130
+123
-131
+1½-163
-1½+149
+1½-165
-1½+150
4.35
5.29
9.64
o8½+102
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-120
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
St. Louis Cardinals (19-25)
Kutter Crawford
Miles Mikolas
53.3%
46.7%
-113
+105
-114
+106
-1½+145
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-157
4.10
3.75
7.85
o8½-113
u8½-103
o8½-105
u8½-105
Detroit Tigers (22-22)
Arizona Diamondbacks (21-24)
Jack Flaherty
Zac Gallen
42.7%
57.3%
+140
-144
+140
-146
+1½-163
-1½+147
+1½-159
-1½+145
3.36
4.12
7.48
o7½-108
u7½-108
o7½-110
u7½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (19-26)
Los Angeles Dodgers (30-17)
Graham Ashcraft
Walker Buehler
33.4%
66.6%
+190
-208
+193
-210
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½-105
3.29
5.01
8.30
o8½+100
u8+102
o8½+100
u8½-115
Games for May 17, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
31.3%
68.7%
+185
-193
+190
-187
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-105
-1½+102
1
8
-0.42702-0.42477-0.37491
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
45.9%
54.1%
+110
-117
+116
-120
+1½-195
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+175
5
4
-0.75717-0.77849-0.77783
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
47.0%
53.0%
-104
-105
-102
-104

+1½-200
-1½+200
7
5
-0.69549-0.69794-0.75436
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
44.0%
56.0%
+130
-132
+131
-137
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-159
-1½+150
6
5
-0.83665-0.84814-0.81987
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
45.9%
54.1%
+110
-113
+104
-112
+1½-193
-1½+175
+1½-185
-1½+176
5
0
-0.74862-0.73126-0.77823
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
57.9%
42.1%
-133
+126
-131
+125
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
1
4
-0.82858-0.82241-0.86624
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels
55.1%
44.9%
-114
+107
-115
+110
-1½+142
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-158
2
7
-0.74322-0.75294-0.80040
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
30.1%
69.9%
+215
-230
+220
-230
+1½+107
-1½-115
+1½+105
-1½-120
0
3
-0.37533-0.37044-0.35752
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
42.0%
58.0%
+175
-183
+178
-175
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-116
-1½+105
0
4
-0.44619-0.44805-0.54412
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
46.8%
53.2%
+126
-132
+124
-130
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
4
0
-0.82675-0.81805-0.75933
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
41.8%
58.2%
+163
-173
+167
-179
+1½-123
-1½+107
+1½-125
-1½+108
7
1
-0.98080-0.99807-0.87122
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
42.6%
57.4%
+120
-126
+120
-128
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+155
4
3
-0.80044-0.80428-0.85238
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
37.5%
62.5%
+175
-185
+185
-190
+1½-108
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+105
5
10
-0.44482-0.42889-0.47074
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
42.7%
57.3%
+128
-136
+132
-137
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
2
4
-0.56593-0.55713-0.55638
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
31.3%
68.7%
+220
-232
+220
-237
+1½+105
-1½-113
+1½+105
-1½-115
8
0
-1.17438-1.17879-1.16015
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
44.3%
55.7%
+139
-145
+140
-145
+1½-153
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+145
1
2
-0.53471-0.53299-0.58494
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1510-5 (0.667)0-0.65200 
Sportsbooks1510-5 (0.667)0-0.65125 
DRatings1510-5 (0.667)0-0.63654
0.01546
0.01471

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.