Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Las Palmas
Cadiz 		30.2%
39.9%		29.9%
+425
-124
+400
-130
0.95
1.14		2.09
o2-136
u2¼-120
o2-130
u2+115
Almeria
Mallorca 		26.1%
46.8%		27.1%
+742
-223
+695
-225
0.97
1.39		2.36
o2½+102
u2½-116
o2½+105
u2½-118
Real Madrid
Villarreal 		64.5%
15.3%		20.2%
+112
+233
+110
+225
2.06
0.89		2.95
o3¼-110
u3½-124
o3½+110
u3½-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Sevilla
Athletic Club 		17.6%
58.4%		24.0%
+455
-147
+445
-160
0.80
1.69		2.49
o2½-116
u2½+105
o2½-115
u2½+100
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona 		5.9%
81.5%		12.6%
+1050
-350
+950
-380
0.60
2.70		3.30
o3¼+102
u3+117
o3-135
u3+120
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid 		8.9%
74.1%		17.0%
+782
-251
+800
-275
0.63
2.24		2.87
o2¾-112
u3-135
o2½-130
u3-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Celta Vigo
Granada 		30.9%
41.7%		27.4%
+100
+308
+100
+300
1.09
1.31		2.40
o2½-122
u2¾-121
o2½-125
u2½+110
Real Sociedad
Betis 		31.6%
40.9%		27.5%
+176
+187
+185
+181
1.11
1.30		2.41
o2¼+108
u2¼-122
o2-140
u2+120
Girona
Valencia 		22.5%
52.6%		24.9%
+129
+216
+132
+200
0.96
1.61		2.57
o2½-139
u2¾-106
o2½-135
u2½+120
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Getafe
Alaves 		30.2%
39.1%		30.7%
+345
-103
+330
-108
2.00
o2¼-105
u2½-142
o2-130
u2½-150
2nd H
56:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Real Madrid
Granada		72.9%
10.2%		16.9%
-173
+458
-175
+440
4
0		-0.48154-0.49722-0.31572
Sevilla
Villarreal		26.7%
47.1%		26.2%
+268
+102
+270
-103
2
3		-0.72602-0.71650-0.75201
Las Palmas
Mallorca		27.2%
44.3%		28.6%
+601
-150
+540
-145
0
1		-0.53801-0.57006-0.81482
Girona
Alaves		32.2%
38.2%		29.6%
+126
+230
+120
+235
2
2		-1.31602-1.30722-1.21672
Granada
Sevilla		18.0%
58.8%		23.2%
+419
-138
+394
-145
0
3		-0.56129-0.57086-0.53064
Almeria
Rayo Vallecano		22.9%
51.9%		25.2%
+480
-150
+460
-159
1
0		-1.78005-1.77049-1.47552
Alaves
Valencia		17.1%
60.0%		23.0%
+290
+123
+305
+118
1
0		-1.37817-1.43167-1.76855
Villarreal
Celta Vigo		30.6%
42.9%		26.5%
+160
+178
+170
+170
2
3		-1.04058-1.01008-0.84623
Betis
Osasuna		33.9%
38.0%		28.1%
+135
+238
+135
+222
2
0		-0.87854-0.89637-1.08149
Atletico Madrid
Mallorca		61.9%
15.3%		22.8%
+115
+316
+118
+277
1
0		-0.79014-0.81991-0.47938
Barcelona
Girona		59.5%
17.8%		22.7%
+138
+192
+140
+182
2
4		-1.09703-1.07061-1.72513
Cadiz
Real Madrid		3.4%
87.3%		9.4%
+885
-265
+800
-290
0
3		-0.34735-0.34579-0.13614
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad		11.9%
68.4%		19.6%
+1025
-294
+875
-295
0
2		-0.31979-0.34013-0.37961
Athletic Club
Getafe		42.2%
28.0%		29.8%
+118
+288
+110
+290
2
0		-0.80786-0.78794-0.86325
Valencia
Barcelona		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+835
-287
+825
-305
2
4		-0.31682-0.32569-0.28124
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (28-1-6, 90 pts)29.91.56.696.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (23-5-7, 76 pts)24.95.47.782.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.07.16.978.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (22-9-4, 70 pts)23.79.64.775.70.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-11, 62 pts)18.57.711.867.30.0%0.3%99.7%0.0%
6Betis (14-8-13, 55 pts)15.09.213.858.80.0%0.0%52.1%0.0%
7Real Sociedad (14-9-12, 54 pts)15.110.212.858.00.0%0.0%47.2%0.0%
8Villarreal (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.014.29.851.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Valencia (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.214.09.852.30.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
10Getafe (10-12-13, 43 pts)10.913.313.846.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Alaves (11-15-9, 42 pts)11.816.49.845.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (10-14-11, 41 pts)10.915.311.844.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-7, 40 pts)11.918.37.943.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-18-7, 37 pts)11.019.27.840.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Mallorca (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.114.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-14, 35 pts)7.715.614.837.80.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
17Celta Vigo (8-17-10, 34 pts)8.918.310.837.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
18Cadiz (5-16-14, 29 pts)6.017.114.932.90.0%0.0%0.0%93.7%
19Granada (4-22-9, 21 pts)5.123.19.925.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-22-11, 17 pts)2.823.411.820.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.