English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 14, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Manchester City
Tottenham 		55.4%
21.8%		22.8%
-256
+595
-272
+590
1.83
1.06		2.89
o3¾-112
u4-125
o3½-130
u3½+115
Games for May 13, 2024
Games for May 15, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Burnley		40.8%
31.2%		28.0%
+101
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.72247-0.73639-0.89637
Fulham
Brentford		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+244
+109
+235
+105
0
0		-1.38625-1.38721-1.31193
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.2%		12.0%
+1225
-444
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23414-0.22666-0.19600
Everton
Luton Town		53.8%
21.7%		24.5%
+152
+181
+150
+180
1
1		-1.33895-1.31119-1.40678
Tottenham
Chelsea		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.92920-0.91854-0.72313
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
Burnley
Manchester United		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+465
-197
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68072-1.64046-1.62923
Crystal Palace
Fulham		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+264
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31494-1.28497-1.27029
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1200
-433
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22846-0.24222-0.27830
Luton Town
Wolverhampton		12.0%
68.3%		19.7%
+295
-108
+290
-105
1
2		-0.68065-0.69699-0.38120
Liverpool
West Ham United		56.1%
20.8%		23.1%
-178
+430
-180
+440
2
2		-1.62501-1.62090-1.46534
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		66.9%
13.6%		19.5%
-271
+727
-297
+720
4
0		-0.33876-0.32899-0.40125
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.56170 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.56715 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43881
0.12289
0.12834

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (26-5-5, 83 pts)27.05.45.586.631.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (25-3-7, 82 pts)27.03.47.688.668.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-9, 78 pts)24.14.49.581.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-7, 67 pts)20.69.87.569.40.0%97.4%2.6%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-11-6, 60 pts)19.412.06.664.80.0%2.6%82.0%0.0%
6Newcastle United (17-13-5, 56 pts)18.213.95.860.50.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%
7Chelsea (15-11-9, 54 pts)16.611.69.859.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
8Manchester United (16-13-6, 54 pts)16.914.26.857.70.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
9West Ham United (13-13-10, 49 pts)13.713.810.551.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Bournemouth (13-14-9, 48 pts)13.614.89.650.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Brighton and Hove Albion (12-12-11, 47 pts)12.913.311.950.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolverhampton (13-16-7, 46 pts)13.417.07.547.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fulham (12-16-8, 44 pts)12.717.08.346.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (11-15-10, 43 pts)11.815.710.645.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (12-15-9, 39 pts)12.715.89.641.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (9-18-9, 36 pts)9.618.99.538.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-19-9, 29 pts)8.619.99.531.20.0%0.0%0.0%6.4%
18Luton Town (6-22-8, 26 pts)6.423.18.527.70.0%0.0%0.0%96.6%
19Burnley (5-22-9, 24 pts)5.522.99.626.20.0%0.0%0.0%97.0%
20Sheffield United (3-26-7, 16 pts)3.427.27.417.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.