English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 15, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion 		37.0%
34.3%		28.8%
+108
+226
+102
+235
1.15
1.09		2.24
o3½+102
u3½-111
o3½+100
u3½-120
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		23.7%
51.6%		24.6%
+135
+175
+135
+170
1.02
1.64		2.66
o3½-122
u3½+106
o3½-120
u3½+105
Games for May 14, 2024
Games for May 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Liverpool
Aston Villa		53.7%
22.6%		23.7%
-126
+296
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56170-1.56715-1.43881
Arsenal
Manchester United		44.0%
29.6%		26.5%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-0.82194
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest		58.4%
17.9%		23.6%
-115
+323
-120
+292
3
2		-0.64078-0.65547-0.53739
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		32.8%
37.6%		29.6%
+128
+229
+135
+227
3
1		-0.84889-0.86736-1.11599
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		24.5%
50.0%		25.5%
+415
-166
+400
-170
1
1		-1.59484-1.60589-1.36602
Brentford
Bournemouth		28.7%
44.1%		27.2%
+227
+113
+234
+110
2
1		-1.21100-1.23433-1.24855
Luton Town
West Ham United		8.0%
77.2%		14.8%
+286
-115
+265
-115
1
3		-0.65454-0.66890-0.25925
Burnley
Tottenham		9.7%
74.5%		15.9%
+750
-311
+680
-310
1
2		-0.30661-0.32294-0.29464
Sheffield United
Everton		12.2%
68.6%		19.3%
+615
-227
+634
-240
0
1		-0.39469-0.38396-0.37750
Manchester City
Fulham		75.6%
8.9%		15.5%
-406
+1175
-457
+1250
4
0		-0.23422-0.23460-0.27957
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.0%
36.2%		28.8%
+258
+102
+260
+110
0
4		-0.73027-0.75226-1.01680
Tottenham
Liverpool		16.6%
63.3%		20.1%
+515
-227
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39525-0.38505-0.45800
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		25.0%
49.5%		25.5%
+170
+150
+165
+170
0
1		-0.94595-0.99937-0.70298
West Ham United
Chelsea		14.6%
65.1%		20.3%
+475
-193
+450
-170
0
5		-0.44690-0.47681-0.42984
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.2%		9.2%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.13716
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United		32.1%
37.7%		30.2%
-145
+405
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55210-0.55621-1.13522
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.56170 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.56715 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43881
0.12289
0.12834

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (26-5-5, 83 pts)27.05.45.586.631.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (25-3-7, 82 pts)27.03.47.688.668.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-9, 78 pts)24.14.49.581.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-7, 67 pts)20.69.87.569.40.0%97.4%2.6%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-11-6, 60 pts)19.412.06.664.80.0%2.6%82.0%0.0%
6Newcastle United (17-13-5, 56 pts)18.213.95.860.50.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%
7Chelsea (15-11-9, 54 pts)16.611.69.859.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
8Manchester United (16-13-6, 54 pts)16.914.26.857.70.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
9West Ham United (13-13-10, 49 pts)13.713.810.551.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Bournemouth (13-14-9, 48 pts)13.614.89.650.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Brighton and Hove Albion (12-12-11, 47 pts)12.913.311.950.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolverhampton (13-16-7, 46 pts)13.417.07.547.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fulham (12-16-8, 44 pts)12.717.08.346.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (11-15-10, 43 pts)11.815.710.645.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (12-15-9, 39 pts)12.715.89.641.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (9-18-9, 36 pts)9.618.99.538.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-19-9, 29 pts)8.619.99.531.20.0%0.0%0.0%6.4%
18Luton Town (6-22-8, 26 pts)6.423.18.527.70.0%0.0%0.0%96.6%
19Burnley (5-22-9, 24 pts)5.522.99.626.20.0%0.0%0.0%97.0%
20Sheffield United (3-26-7, 16 pts)3.427.27.417.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.