Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Valencia
Barcelona 		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+750
-263
+710
-280
0.72
2.44		3.16
o2¾-118
u3-124
o3+110
u3-130
Games for Apr 28, 2024
Games for May 3, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal		17.7%
60.4%		21.9%
+362
-120
+346
-125
0
3		-0.62755-0.62982-0.50428
Osasuna
Granada		28.7%
43.9%		27.4%
+249
+142
+240
+150
0
3		-0.90587-0.93805-0.82260
Mallorca
Cadiz		28.7%
41.6%		29.7%
+214
+186
+218
+170
1
1		-1.06613-1.08240-1.21396
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid		18.6%
56.7%		24.7%
+321
-102
+315
-110
1
3		-0.70336-0.69433-0.56697
Celta Vigo
Alaves		32.7%
38.1%		29.2%
+200
+170
+190
+170
0
3		-1.01418-1.03541-0.96469
Getafe
Almeria		32.6%
37.5%		29.9%
+196
+160
+187
+170
3
1		-1.11398-1.07590-1.12061
Girona
Las Palmas		32.8%
37.8%		29.4%
-143
+423
-130
+390
2
0		-0.55236-0.58783-1.11474
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+233
+144
+222
+140
1
0		-1.21878-1.20835-0.59796
Mallorca
Sevilla		14.9%
62.7%		22.4%
+325
+112
+325
+110
1
2		-0.77072-0.77542-0.46695
Barcelona
Real Madrid		19.2%
57.9%		22.9%
+335
-134
+340
-138
2
3		-0.58438-0.57882-0.54626
Atletico Madrid
Alaves		59.5%
16.7%		23.8%
-124
+440
-120
+410
0
2		-1.70898-1.66850-1.78988
Villarreal
Almeria		40.7%
32.3%		27.0%
-102
+258
-105
+250
2
1		-0.71109-0.71584-0.89948
Real Sociedad
Getafe		38.5%
31.4%		30.1%
+125
+291
+115
+301
1
1		-1.14728-1.14536-1.20071
Cadiz
Girona		16.0%
61.0%		23.0%
+770
-242
+700
-250
1
4		-0.36856-0.38094-0.49376
Betis
Valencia		28.4%
45.3%		26.3%
+191
+177
+200
+173
2
1		-1.09201-1.12575-1.25984
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-0-2 (0.750)0-0.96564 
Sportsbooks42-0-2 (0.750)0-0.97908 
DRatings42-0-2 (0.750)0-0.97172
-0.00608
0.00736

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/22/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (25-1-6, 81 pts)28.91.97.294.099.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-4-7, 70 pts)24.45.18.481.70.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (21-6-5, 68 pts)23.18.36.675.90.0%97.9%2.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-9-4, 61 pts)22.110.35.671.90.0%78.1%21.9%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-10, 58 pts)18.77.611.667.90.0%23.9%75.9%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-12, 51 pts)14.99.413.758.40.0%0.1%64.0%0.0%
7Betis (12-8-12, 48 pts)14.110.213.756.00.0%0.0%20.9%0.0%
8Valencia (13-11-8, 47 pts)15.113.29.754.90.0%0.0%15.0%0.0%
9Villarreal (11-12-9, 42 pts)13.114.310.649.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-13, 40 pts)11.112.214.648.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-15-6, 39 pts)12.817.57.746.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (9-13-10, 37 pts)11.215.111.745.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Las Palmas (10-15-7, 37 pts)11.917.48.844.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
14Alaves (9-15-8, 35 pts)10.717.79.641.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Rayo Vallecano (7-12-13, 34 pts)8.714.714.640.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%
16Celta Vigo (7-15-10, 31 pts)8.917.411.738.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
17Mallorca (6-13-13, 31 pts)7.915.514.738.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.4%
18Cadiz (4-15-13, 25 pts)5.617.814.731.40.0%0.0%0.0%91.1%
19Granada (3-20-9, 18 pts)4.822.610.625.00.0%0.0%0.0%99.9%
20Almeria (1-20-11, 14 pts)2.822.612.720.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.