Stoke City at Derby County

Updated

Stoke City

35.1%29.4%35.5%
Stoke City WinDrawDerby County Win
1.07Projected Goals 1.09
1Final Score 2

Derby County

Last 5 Games

Stoke City
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Barnsley-155
W 1-2 vs Huddersfield-105
L 0-3 at Fulham+380
W 0-1 vs Nottingham Forest-125
W 3-1 at Swansea City+150
Derby County
Money Line
T 0-0 at West Bromwich Albion+635
L 0-2 at Birmingham City+350
T 1-1 vs Nottingham Forest+135
T 0-0 vs Middlesbrough+190
W 1-0 at Hull City+295

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.1%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+135+117+119+122+120+119+122+128.4
Derby County+209+265+290+284+251+290+290+294.1
Draw+222+210+198+215+211+198+215+224.1
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Stoke City+150---+110+115+115+128.4
Derby County+200---+225+280+280+294.1
Draw+210---+190+210+210+224.1

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +120 to +112
Derby County ML moved from +275 to +265

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Stoke City: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Stoke City: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Stoke City: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Stoke City ML moved from +130 to +115
No Steam Moves On Derby County ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.9%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2-125o2-110o2-109o2-105-o2-109o2-105o2+100
Underu2+105u2-110u2-111u2-107-u2-111u2-107u2+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2+100
Under-----u2+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 20.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u2½-136 to u2+118

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes43.7%
 
No56.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 011.50%
Exactly 226.90%
Exactly 410.49%
Exactly 61.64%
Exactly 80.14%
 
Exactly 124.87%
Exactly 319.39%
Exactly 54.54%
Exactly 70.51%
Exact Goals Scored - Stoke City
Exactly 034.14%
Exactly 136.69%
Exactly 219.71%
Exactly 37.06%
Exactly 41.90%
Exactly 50.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 033.67%
Exactly 136.65%
Exactly 219.95%
Exactly 37.24%
Exactly 41.97%
Exactly 50.43%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 036.73%
Exactly 218.42%
Exactly 41.54%
 
Exactly 136.79%
Exactly 36.15%
Exactly 50.31%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Stoke City
Exactly 060.80%
Exactly 130.25%
Exactly 27.53%
Exactly 31.25%
Exactly 40.16%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 060.41%
Exactly 130.45%
Exactly 27.67%
Exactly 31.29%
Exactly 40.16%

Alternate Props

Spread

Stoke City
Wins by 2+ goals13.71%
Wins by 3+ goals4.08%
Wins by 4+ goals0.93%
Wins by 5+ goals0.14%
Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals14.14%
Wins by 3+ goals4.26%
Wins by 4+ goals0.98%
Wins by 5+ goals0.15%

Exact Winning Margin

Stoke City
Derby County
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Stoke City
Wins by 1 goal21.13%
Wins by 2 goals9.63%
Wins by 3 goals3.15%
Wins by 4 goals0.79%
Wins by 5 goals0.14%
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal21.41%
Wins by 2 goals9.89%
Wins by 3 goals3.28%
Wins by 4 goals0.83%
Wins by 5 goals0.15%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.588.50%11.50%
1.563.64%36.36%
2.536.74%63.26%
3.517.35%82.65%
4.56.86%93.14%
5.52.32%97.68%

Total Goals Stoke City Over/Under

OverUnder
0.565.86%34.14%
1.529.17%70.83%
2.59.45%90.55%
3.52.39%97.61%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.566.33%33.67%
1.529.68%70.32%
2.59.73%90.27%
3.52.49%97.51%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.563.27%36.73%
1.526.48%73.52%
2.58.06%91.94%
3.51.91%98.09%

Score Props

Correct Score

Stoke City
Derby County
Score012345
0
11.50%
12.51%
6.81%
2.47%
0.67%
0.15%
1
12.35%
13.45%
7.32%
2.66%
0.72%
0.16%
2
6.64%
7.23%
3.93%
1.43%
0.39%
0.08%
3
2.38%
2.59%
1.41%
0.51%
0.14%
0.03%
4
0.64%
0.70%
0.38%
0.14%
0.04%
0.01%
5
0.14%
0.15%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Stoke City
1-012.35%
2-06.64%
2-17.23%
3-02.38%
3-12.59%
3-21.41%
4-00.64%
4-10.70%
4-20.38%
4-30.14%
5-00.14%
5-10.15%
Draw
0-011.50%
1-113.45%
2-23.93%
3-30.51%
Derby County
0-112.51%
0-26.81%
1-27.32%
0-32.47%
1-32.66%
2-31.43%
0-40.67%
1-40.72%
2-40.39%
3-40.14%
0-50.15%
1-50.16%

Correct Score - First Half

Stoke City
Derby County
Score0123
0
36.73%
18.51%
4.67%
0.78%
1
18.27%
9.21%
2.32%
0.39%
2
4.55%
2.29%
0.58%
0.10%
3
0.75%
0.38%
0.10%
0.02%
Stoke City
1-018.27%
2-04.55%
2-12.29%
3-00.75%
3-10.38%
Draw
0-036.73%
1-19.21%
2-20.58%
Derby County
0-118.51%
0-24.67%
1-22.32%
0-30.78%
1-30.39%
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