Derby County at Middlesbrough

Updated

Derby County

25.8%24.6%49.6%
Derby County WinDrawMiddlesbrough Win
0.85Projected Goals 1.64
1Final Score 4

Middlesbrough

Last 5 Games

Derby County
Money Line
W 1-3 vs Hull City+130
L 0-2 at Huddersfield+265
T 2-2 vs Birmingham City+140
L 1-2 at Nottingham Forest+355
W 0-2 vs Sheffield United+275
Middlesbrough
Money Line
T 2-2 at Queens Park Rangers+180
W 0-1 vs Coventry City-110
L 0-1 at Blackburn+175
W 1-2 vs Reading-330
W 2-1 at Blackpool+120

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.0%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+370+475+410+511+478+410+511+529.6
Middlesbrough-130-160-154-152-162-154-152-140.7
Draw+250+265+260+279+272+260+279+289.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Derby County+500---+470+540+540+529.6
Middlesbrough-160----190-170-170-140.7
Draw+270---+240+275+275+289.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 30.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 0.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Derby County ML moved from +430 to +410
Middlesbrough ML moved from -153 to -161

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 60.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Derby County: 40.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Derby County: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Derby County: 20.0%
Middlesbrough: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Derby County ML
No Steam Moves On Middlesbrough ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:0.2%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¼-118o2¼+100o2¼-106o2½+131-o2¼-106o2¼+100o2½+133
Underu2¼-102u2¼-120u2¼-114u2½-146-u2¼-114u2½-146u2½-133
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2½+133
Under-----u2½-133

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes46.3%
 
No53.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.26%
Exactly 225.68%
Exactly 413.31%
Exactly 62.76%
Exactly 80.31%
 
Exactly 120.59%
Exactly 321.35%
Exactly 56.64%
Exactly 70.98%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 042.60%
Exactly 136.35%
Exactly 215.51%
Exactly 34.41%
Exactly 40.94%
Exactly 50.16%
Exact Goals Scored - Middlesbrough
Exactly 019.38%
Exactly 131.80%
Exactly 226.09%
Exactly 314.27%
Exactly 45.86%
Exactly 51.92%
Exactly 60.53%
Exactly 70.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.51%
Exactly 221.01%
Exactly 42.34%
Exactly 60.10%
 
Exactly 136.39%
Exactly 38.09%
Exactly 50.54%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 067.36%
Exactly 126.61%
Exactly 25.26%
Exactly 30.69%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Middlesbrough
Exactly 046.78%
Exactly 135.54%
Exactly 213.50%
Exactly 33.42%
Exactly 40.65%

Alternate Props

Spread

Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals6.14%
Wins by 3+ goals1.46%
Wins by 4+ goals0.26%
Middlesbrough
Wins by 2+ goals30.46%
Wins by 3+ goals13.16%
Wins by 4+ goals4.63%
Wins by 5+ goals1.35%
Wins by 6+ goals0.32%

Exact Winning Margin

Derby County
Middlesbrough
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal13.27%
Wins by 2 goals4.68%
Wins by 3 goals1.20%
Wins by 4 goals0.23%
Middlesbrough
Wins by 1 goal25.52%
Wins by 2 goals17.30%
Wins by 3 goals8.53%
Wins by 4 goals3.28%
Wins by 5 goals1.03%
Wins by 6 goals0.27%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.74%8.26%
1.571.15%28.85%
2.545.47%54.53%
3.524.12%75.88%
4.510.81%89.19%
5.54.16%95.84%
6.51.40%98.60%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.557.40%42.60%
1.521.05%78.95%
2.55.54%94.46%
3.51.13%98.87%

Total Goals Middlesbrough Over/Under

OverUnder
0.580.62%19.38%
1.548.82%51.18%
2.522.73%77.27%
3.58.46%91.54%
4.52.60%97.40%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.49%31.51%
1.532.10%67.90%
2.511.09%88.91%
3.53.00%97.00%

Score Props

Correct Score

Derby County
Middlesbrough
Score012345
0
8.26%
13.55%
11.12%
6.08%
2.49%
0.82%
1
7.04%
11.56%
9.48%
5.19%
2.13%
0.70%
2
3.01%
4.93%
4.05%
2.21%
0.91%
0.30%
3
0.85%
1.40%
1.15%
0.63%
0.26%
0.08%
4
0.18%
0.30%
0.25%
0.13%
0.06%
0.02%
Derby County
1-07.04%
2-03.01%
2-14.93%
3-00.85%
3-11.40%
3-21.15%
4-00.18%
4-10.30%
4-20.25%
4-30.13%
Draw
0-08.26%
1-111.56%
2-24.05%
3-30.63%
Middlesbrough
0-113.55%
0-211.12%
1-29.48%
0-36.08%
1-35.19%
2-32.21%
0-42.49%
1-42.13%
2-40.91%
3-40.26%
0-50.82%
1-50.70%
2-50.30%

Correct Score - First Half

Derby County
Middlesbrough
Score01234
0
31.51%
23.94%
9.10%
2.30%
0.44%
1
12.45%
9.46%
3.59%
0.91%
0.17%
2
2.46%
1.87%
0.71%
0.18%
0.03%
3
0.32%
0.25%
0.09%
0.02%
0.00%
Derby County
1-012.45%
2-02.46%
2-11.87%
3-00.32%
3-10.25%
Draw
0-031.51%
1-19.46%
2-20.71%
Middlesbrough
0-123.94%
0-29.10%
1-23.59%
0-32.30%
1-30.91%
2-30.18%
0-40.44%
1-40.17%
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