English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+535
-197
+540
-210
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-112
u3+107
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Aston Villa		37.5%
35.8%		26.7%
+168
+150
+155
+155
4
0		-1.00871-0.97228-0.98008
Brentford
Arsenal		7.6%
78.2%		14.2%
+1262
-463
+1150
-500
1
2		-0.22427-0.23052-0.24616
Sheffield United
Bournemouth		16.9%
60.1%		23.0%
+745
-260
+740
-295
2
2		-1.76358-1.78821-1.46981
Luton Town
Crystal Palace		8.6%
75.1%		16.3%
+332
-110
+350
-115
1
1		-1.36877-1.35507-1.81253
Fulham
Wolverhampton		24.6%
48.7%		26.6%
+198
+147
+190
+150
1
2		-0.93242-0.95368-0.71867
Everton
Manchester United		13.8%
66.9%		19.4%
+320
-114
+315
-120
0
2		-0.65472-0.65126-0.40266
Arsenal
Sheffield United		72.6%
10.0%		17.3%
-550
+1581
-585
+1600
6
0		-0.20034-0.19200-0.31994
Manchester United
Manchester City		8.5%
76.7%		14.8%
+1015
-380
+990
-400
1
3		-0.24998-0.25055-0.26562
Bournemouth
Burnley		24.5%
49.3%		26.3%
+102
+270
+105
+256
2
0		-0.73118-0.75609-1.40850
Aston Villa
Luton Town		60.4%
17.5%		22.1%
-140
+360
-145
+350
3
2		-0.55883-0.56754-0.50421
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		15.0%
65.1%		20.0%
+517
-183
+565
-198
1
3		-0.46173-0.44519-0.42960
West Ham United
Everton		34.0%
38.5%		27.5%
+250
+115
+255
+112
3
1		-1.28100-1.30144-1.07831
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		14.3%
64.9%		20.9%
+355
-135
+335
-125
0
3		-0.58288-0.61216-0.43271
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest		71.2%
10.9%		17.9%
-163
+470
-176
+465
1
0		-0.49425-0.48148-0.33976
Chelsea
Brentford		53.2%
22.0%		24.7%
+118
+229
+114
+220
2
2		-1.35460-1.37706-1.39748
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fulham		37.3%
34.2%		28.5%
+182
+160
+175
+160
0
3		-0.97543-0.98892-1.07172
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.