English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+535
-197
+540
-210
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-112
u3+103
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brentford
West Ham United		17.3%
60.9%		21.8%
+212
+138
+197
+140
2
4		-0.88540-0.91779-0.49633
Sheffield United
Wolverhampton		14.0%
64.0%		22.0%
+640
-205
+577
-210
0
1		-0.41893-0.43573-0.44704
Newcastle United
Arsenal		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+765
-267
+800
-315
1
4		-0.33651-0.31970-0.46727
Manchester City
Bournemouth		77.5%
7.9%		14.6%
-210
+605
-241
+625
1
0		-0.40097-0.38519-0.25521
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		18.7%
58.5%		22.8%
+330
-116
+305
-120
1
1		-1.40572-1.40862-1.47648
Burnley
Crystal Palace		19.4%
56.2%		24.4%
+307
+101
+310
+100
0
3		-0.72352-0.73045-0.57624
Fulham
Manchester United		12.3%
69.1%		18.5%
+435
-152
+410
-160
2
1		-1.69429-1.67494-2.09273
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa		13.2%
67.1%		19.8%
+485
-170
+440
-177
2
4		-0.48043-0.49321-0.39930
Luton Town
Liverpool		2.9%
89.5%		7.7%
+950
-351
+940
-413
1
4		-0.27105-0.26194-0.11136
Brentford
Manchester City		3.9%
86.8%		9.3%
+1393
-550
+1350
-600
0
1		-0.19738-0.19765-0.14141
Crystal Palace
Everton		30.0%
42.4%		27.6%
+407
-120
+390
-125
1
1		-1.28489-1.28667-1.28681
Manchester United
Luton Town		69.2%
12.2%		18.6%
-121
+338
-125
+315
2
1		-0.61620-0.62740-0.36787
Brighton and Hove Albion
Sheffield United		53.7%
21.0%		25.3%
-143
+395
-150
+375
5
0		-0.54782-0.55563-0.62111
Chelsea
Manchester City		11.1%
71.3%		17.6%
+750
-302
+790
-315
1
1		-1.90724-1.89672-1.73653
Bournemouth
Newcastle United		11.6%
70.2%		18.2%
+267
+100
+245
-105
2
2		-1.41795-1.44464-1.70628
Arsenal
Burnley		60.0%
17.6%		22.4%
-328
+930
-325
+850
5
0		-0.29444-0.30835-0.51046
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.