English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+535
-193
+540
-210
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-112
u3+103
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		11.9%
70.0%		18.1%
+490
-190
+435
-180
2
1		-1.79933-1.71658-2.12662
West Ham United
Nottingham Forest		44.4%
28.2%		27.3%
+225
+128
+220
+125
0
2		-0.85177-0.85508-1.26443
Aston Villa
Fulham		36.1%
35.8%		28.1%
+131
+205
+133
+194
2
1		-0.86572-0.88826-1.02012
Liverpool
Brentford		65.2%
14.7%		20.1%
-151
+410
-160
+375
4
1		-0.53282-0.53253-0.42828
Chelsea
Crystal Palace		44.2%
28.1%		27.7%
-137
+412
-140
+425
3
1		-0.57058-0.56941-0.81561
Manchester United
Aston Villa		34.6%
37.8%		27.6%
+220
+116
+220
+112
2
1		-1.19201-1.20614-1.06135
Arsenal
West Ham United		46.6%
27.6%		25.8%
-185
+549
-200
+550
6
0		-0.46115-0.45215-0.76336
Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest		52.3%
22.5%		25.3%
+117
+233
+115
+222
3
2		-0.79538-0.81038-0.64903
Bournemouth
Fulham		23.5%
51.3%		25.2%
+180
+157
+180
+155
1
3		-0.96467-0.96281-0.66736
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		18.3%
60.2%		21.5%
+318
-133
+310
-134
1
2		-0.59196-0.59793-0.50770
Burnley
Liverpool		5.9%
81.6%		12.5%
+1450
-598
+1500
-655
1
3		-0.18647-0.17953-0.20314
Brentford
Wolverhampton		24.4%
49.1%		26.5%
+236
+125
+235
+122
2
0		-1.23008-1.23533-1.40989
Everton
Manchester City		4.3%
85.9%		9.8%
+1200
-418
+1210
-520
0
2		-0.23606-0.22609-0.15216
Manchester City
Brentford		75.4%
9.0%		15.6%
-263
+740
-280
+750
3
1		-0.34699-0.34105-0.28219
Liverpool
Arsenal		31.4%
41.9%		26.7%
+233
+122
+225
+120
1
3		-0.81477-0.82257-0.86903
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		10.3%
71.5%		18.1%
+515
-180
+485
-185
4
2		-1.83904-1.80551-2.26838
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.