English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+535
-193
+540
-210
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-112
u3+103
o3-115
u3+105
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Manchester United		19.3%
58.2%		22.5%
+480
-174
+460
-180
0
3		-0.48331-0.48456-0.54046
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth		22.4%
51.9%		25.7%
+408
-150
+375
-155
1
1		-1.50544-1.50828-1.35934
Aston Villa
Sheffield United		52.8%
22.2%		25.1%
-156
+440
-165
+425
5
0		-0.51691-0.52106-0.63925
Luton Town
Newcastle United		5.5%
82.6%		11.9%
+525
-182
+480
-195
4
4		-1.55538-1.57562-2.12586
Fulham
Burnley		27.2%
45.7%		27.1%
+155
+203
+155
+190
2
2		-1.23364-1.22237-1.30586
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion		22.0%
52.7%		25.3%
+420
-136
+410
-142
1
4		-0.57846-0.57811-0.63989
Tottenham
Everton		46.8%
28.1%		25.1%
+123
+219
+115
+215
2
2		-1.34992-1.36583-1.38182
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		43.7%
28.7%		27.6%
+144
+198
+142
+190
4
3		-0.91872-0.93057-0.82819
Bournemouth
West Ham United		15.4%
63.8%		20.8%
+184
+147
+180
+145
1
1		-1.31509-1.32309-1.56964
Chelsea
Liverpool		18.0%
59.8%		22.2%
+390
-151
+400
-165
1
4		-0.53714-0.51303-0.51381
Brentford
Tottenham		10.9%
72.6%		16.5%
+414
-162
+405
-170
2
3		-0.51524-0.51176-0.32032
Burnley
Manchester City		3.8%
86.7%		9.5%
+1968
-800
+2350
-1120
1
3		-0.14320-0.13031-0.14325
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		33.0%
39.8%		27.3%
+310
-115
+295
-120
3
1		-1.43284-1.42122-1.10942
Sheffield United
Crystal Palace		11.2%
69.5%		19.3%
+504
-163
+500
-168
2
3		-0.51014-0.51266-0.36443
Brighton and Hove Albion
Luton Town		61.2%
16.6%		22.2%
-120
+330
-123
+320
0
4		-1.47968-1.47701-1.79619
Everton
Fulham		28.6%
44.8%		26.6%
+257
+125
+245
+125
0
0		-1.22112-1.21980-1.32377
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.