English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		38.7%
32.4%		28.9%
-108
+319
-122
+330
2
2		-1.36555-1.39877-1.24181
Sheffield United
Arsenal		4.4%
84.8%		10.7%
+1900
-731
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.16254-0.16605-0.16460
Burnley
Bournemouth		29.9%
42.0%		28.1%
+245
+117
+235
+112
1
2		-0.79909-0.79829-0.86688
Brentford
Chelsea		10.6%
71.9%		17.5%
+450
-150
+425
-155
2
0		-1.73014-1.70243-2.24810
Tottenham
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.9%		27.4%
-128
+384
-130
+360
2
1		-0.59334-0.60693-0.95003
Fulham
Tottenham		11.0%
72.3%		16.6%
+568
-198
+560
-215
0
2		-0.43104-0.42557-0.32406
West Ham United
Aston Villa		26.7%
47.9%		25.4%
+345
-123
+330
-125
1
4		-0.61973-0.62822-0.73597
Manchester United
Sheffield United		67.5%
12.8%		19.7%
-265
+675
-292
+690
2
1		-0.34872-0.33889-0.39359
Arsenal
Chelsea		25.5%
48.9%		25.6%
+132
+232
+135
+225
2
2		-1.24344-1.21878-1.36344
Luton Town
Nottingham Forest		19.1%
56.6%		24.3%
+425
-132
+415
-135
2
2		-1.34754-1.32633-1.41391
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		28.5%
44.1%		27.4%
+690
-213
+700
-230
0
4		-0.41380-0.40191-0.81935
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		5.6%
82.5%		11.9%
+750
-275
+740
-267
1
2		-0.33475-0.33127-0.19278
Burnley
Brentford		23.0%
51.4%		25.6%
+392
-132
+370
-130
0
3		-0.59869-0.60954-0.66635
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		34.5%
35.7%		29.8%
+225
+136
+210
+130
2
1		-1.19972-1.16970-1.06381
Everton
Liverpool		5.8%
82.4%		11.8%
+695
-250
+710
-260
0
2		-0.36143-0.34335-0.19403
Manchester City
Arsenal		50.7%
24.7%		24.7%
+153
+200
+146
+200
0
1		-1.12976-1.13797-1.39987
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.