English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		31.8%
39.9%		28.3%
+106
+267
+100
+255
1
1		-1.33014-1.35899-1.26192
Newcastle United
West Ham United		22.3%
53.7%		24.0%
+111
+246
+105
+244
2
2		-1.34102-1.35596-1.42670
Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion		58.9%
18.6%		22.4%
+110
+227
+110
+225
2
2		-1.45496-1.41964-1.49464
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace		11.4%
69.2%		19.4%
+245
+133
+245
+130
0
0		-1.19422-1.18866-1.63964
Brentford
Manchester United		13.6%
67.0%		19.4%
+430
-153
+429
-150
1
2		-0.52860-0.54323-0.40030
Sheffield United
Fulham		12.1%
68.4%		19.5%
+575
-189
+575
-195
1
3		-0.44874-0.46512-0.37913
Bournemouth
Everton		19.4%
57.5%		23.1%
+315
-108
+305
-115
0
3		-0.68122-0.67303-0.55365
Chelsea
Burnley		53.9%
21.2%		24.9%
-143
+425
-145
+390
4
1		-0.55876-0.57552-0.61728
Tottenham
Luton Town		72.4%
10.9%		16.7%
-224
+620
-225
+685
1
0		-0.39322-0.36440-0.32289
Chelsea
Fulham		53.0%
22.3%		24.7%
+120
+255
+118
+260
2
0		-0.81015-0.81202-0.63433
Brentford
Nottingham Forest		40.0%
31.2%		28.7%
+192
+165
+185
+168
1
1		-1.20148-1.19902-1.24754
Liverpool
Tottenham		45.3%
29.4%		25.3%
+125
+200
+125
+190
1
2		-1.12541-1.10627-1.22458
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		71.0%
11.0%		18.1%
-255
+725
-265
+775
1
2		-2.14157-2.19095-2.21137
Sheffield United
West Ham United		7.6%
77.6%		14.8%
+650
-221
+600
-228
0
2		-0.39884-0.41020-0.25398
Burnley
Newcastle United		20.0%
56.1%		24.0%
+755
-252
+730
-275
0
2		-0.35906-0.35702-0.57846
Crystal Palace
Manchester United		17.9%
59.3%		22.8%
+530
-178
+485
-175
1
0		-1.87165-1.80868-1.71914
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.