English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Luton Town
Everton		10.2%
72.7%		17.1%
+495
-156
+475
-162
2
1		-1.81665-1.79673-2.27985
Arsenal
Bournemouth		58.9%
18.6%		22.5%
-185
+510
-190
+500
4
0		-0.46213-0.46318-0.52879
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+172
+153
+167
+150
1
6		-0.95875-0.95667-0.70802
Newcastle United
Sheffield United		53.5%
21.5%		25.0%
-185
+539
-195
+525
8
0		-0.46448-0.45869-0.62592
Aston Villa
Chelsea		14.9%
64.8%		20.3%
+305
-114
+310
-120
1
0		-1.43288-1.46218-1.90616
West Ham United
Liverpool		8.2%
77.4%		14.4%
+715
-265
+700
-285
1
3		-0.34709-0.34835-0.25670
Bournemouth
Brighton and Hove Albion		14.8%
64.2%		20.9%
+540
-200
+525
-208
1
3		-0.42812-0.42162-0.44247
Tottenham
Arsenal		23.9%
52.4%		23.7%
+420
-156
+375
-155
2
2		-1.50837-1.50828-1.44071
Manchester United
Burnley		47.3%
26.3%		26.4%
-118
+326
-125
+321
1
0		-0.64573-0.62997-0.74860
Everton
Brentford		26.5%
47.5%		26.0%
+335
-108
+300
-110
3
1		-1.50049-1.43439-1.32655
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City		2.7%
89.7%		7.6%
+1800
-622
+1600
-680
0
2		-0.17774-0.18113-0.10844
Wolverhampton
Luton Town		51.9%
22.2%		25.9%
+136
+225
+136
+230
1
1		-1.23846-1.24441-1.35058
Fulham
Crystal Palace		18.8%
57.5%		23.6%
+292
+109
+290
+102
0
0		-1.25110-1.26833-1.44371
Burnley
Nottingham Forest		35.9%
34.2%		29.9%
+275
+111
+265
+115
1
1		-1.26837-1.27726-1.20748
Arsenal
Everton		47.4%
27.0%		25.6%
-175
+494
-180
+465
1
0		-0.48246-0.48303-0.74642
Chelsea
Bournemouth		60.7%
17.0%		22.3%
-115
+335
-120
+310
0
0		-1.37425-1.42491-1.49870
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.