English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brentford
Newcastle United		22.9%
52.3%		24.8%
+441
-156
+425
-160
0
1		-0.52989-0.53408-0.64747
Manchester City
West Ham United		66.2%
14.3%		19.5%
-166
+462
-175
+475
3
1		-0.50549-0.49394-0.41264
Sheffield United
Tottenham		7.4%
78.6%		13.9%
+900
-340
+850
-360
1
2		-0.28406-0.29336-0.24063
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		18.1%
59.5%		22.4%
+250
+104
+240
+100
3
1		-1.28143-1.27497-1.70937
Luton Town
Fulham		12.7%
67.9%		19.3%
+480
-147
+461
-150
0
1		-0.54920-0.54490-0.38706
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		30.1%
42.5%		27.4%
+310
-105
+310
-115
1
3		-0.69722-0.67360-0.85658
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		63.8%
15.1%		21.1%
-147
+375
-165
+500
3
1		-0.55137-0.47813-0.44898
Manchester United
Arsenal		23.5%
52.2%		24.3%
+339
-132
+330
-130
1
3		-0.59283-0.62023-0.64984
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		21.9%
52.0%		26.1%
+350
-110
+347
-115
2
3		-0.67397-0.66906-0.65433
Aston Villa
Liverpool		6.3%
81.5%		12.2%
+415
-165
+420
-170
0
3		-0.50294-0.50584-0.20406
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.4%
54.4%		24.2%
+155
+162
+155
+155
1
3		-0.99490-0.97920-0.60842
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea		5.5%
81.9%		12.6%
+750
-238
+680
-250
1
0		-2.16561-2.10365-2.90607
Bournemouth
Brentford		19.6%
56.7%		23.7%
+395
-138
+380
-140
2
2		-1.41762-1.42712-1.44007
Tottenham
Burnley		53.2%
22.7%		24.1%
+101
+268
+100
+260
5
2		-0.72672-0.72998-0.63203
Fulham
Manchester City		3.6%
87.7%		8.7%
+1400
-518
+1460
-600
1
5		-0.20904-0.19788-0.13111
Everton
Sheffield United		35.0%
35.7%		29.3%
+137
+215
+135
+226
2
2		-1.25674-1.21133-1.22646
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.