English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Luton Town		60.8%
17.2%		22.0%
-137
+400
-142
+375
2
1		-0.56410-0.57348-0.49791
Liverpool
Newcastle United		65.1%
14.8%		20.2%
+208
+121
+210
+120
2
1		-1.15668-1.17025-0.42995
Aston Villa
Burnley		31.5%
40.7%		27.8%
+125
+231
+120
+221
3
1		-0.83423-0.83510-1.15382
Manchester City
Sheffield United		79.3%
6.7%		13.9%
-463
+1500
-490
+1358
2
1		-0.21537-0.21763-0.23131
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		27.5%
45.7%		26.8%
+510
-191
+460
-200
3
1		-1.83239-1.77090-1.29218
Crystal Palace
Brentford		32.2%
39.5%		28.4%
+268
+117
+260
+115
1
1		-1.25428-1.23884-1.26051
Fulham
Arsenal		9.6%
74.2%		16.2%
+985
-344
+920
-350
2
2		-1.83177-1.83333-1.81769
Wolverhampton
Everton		27.3%
45.4%		27.3%
+210
+146
+205
+145
1
0		-1.15100-1.14911-1.29733
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United		7.3%
78.1%		14.6%
+766
-260
+730
-273
2
3		-0.34804-0.35583-0.24664
Tottenham
Bournemouth		58.6%
19.2%		22.2%
+103
+253
+108
+250
2
0		-0.73984-0.76499-0.53409
Luton Town
Chelsea		3.9%
86.6%		9.5%
+1195
-365
+1100
-412
0
3		-0.26406-0.26420-0.14329
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		39.3%
32.6%		28.1%
-113
+398
-120
+365
1
0		-0.62560-0.64004-0.93435
Chelsea
West Ham United		42.3%
30.8%		26.9%
+124
+253
+119
+230
1
3		-1.26128-1.23443-1.17691
Everton
Aston Villa		24.6%
50.8%		24.6%
+343
-120
+330
-115
0
4		-0.63209-0.65585-0.67721
Newcastle United
Manchester City		4.4%
85.5%		10.0%
+330
-116
+340
-125
0
1		-0.64800-0.62946-0.15623
Manchester United
Tottenham		22.8%
54.1%		23.1%
+128
+205
+130
+203
0
2		-1.14435-1.13956-0.61374
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.