English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brentford
Fulham		30.5%
42.0%		27.5%
+174
+186
+160
+187
3
0		-1.03002-1.00005-1.18761
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		30.2%
40.3%		29.5%
-122
+324
-120
+305
4
1		-0.62753-0.63892-1.19792
Bournemouth
Liverpool		4.2%
85.7%		10.1%
+1250
-476
+1120
-500
1
3		-0.21879-0.22570-0.15468
Sheffield United
Nottingham Forest		30.0%
40.0%		30.0%
+345
-105
+344
-110
1
2		-0.68748-0.68078-0.91587
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		14.7%
64.2%		21.1%
+1100
-366
+1025
-375
0
1		-0.26988-0.28044-0.44331
Liverpool
Chelsea		38.6%
33.7%		27.7%
+128
+212
+120
+210
1
1		-1.36677-1.36857-1.28395
Tottenham
Brentford		49.5%
25.9%		24.6%
+172
+162
+166
+160
2
2		-1.31778-1.29382-1.40194
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		27.2%
47.0%		25.9%
+425
-152
+410
-155
1
5		-0.53681-0.54008-0.75607
Luton Town
Brighton and Hove Albion		7.8%
76.9%		15.4%
+977
-308
+900
-360
1
4		-0.29522-0.29190-0.26330
Crystal Palace
Sheffield United		41.3%
29.5%		29.2%
+120
+286
+120
+252
1
0		-0.81423-0.83374-0.88394
Fulham
Everton		21.8%
54.0%		24.2%
+242
+135
+235
+130
1
0		-1.24946-1.24026-1.52294
West Ham United
Bournemouth		42.9%
30.0%		27.0%
+160
+177
+165
+172
1
1		-1.30405-1.27054-1.30930
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal		6.4%
80.1%		13.5%
+1420
-507
+1450
-555
1
2		-0.20497-0.20653-0.22156
Manchester City
Burnley		75.7%
8.6%		15.6%
-290
+865
-310
+825
3
0		-0.31571-0.31641-0.27778
Liverpool
Southampton		70.3%
12.2%		17.5%
-198
+515
-210
+485
4
4		-1.66776-1.68854-1.74348
Fulham
Manchester United		9.2%
75.0%		15.8%
+505
-201
+495
-195
1
2		-0.43442-0.44501-0.28770
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.