English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Leicester City		12.8%
69.6%		17.6%
+236
+107
+230
+110
1
2		-0.75362-0.77694-0.36243
Tottenham
Leeds United		44.1%
30.4%		25.5%
+142
+180
+140
+170
4
1		-0.91018-0.91799-0.81864
Bournemouth
Everton		16.6%
61.8%		21.6%
+444
-157
+455
-170
0
1		-0.52295-0.51106-0.48174
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace		15.4%
62.0%		22.6%
+478
-158
+415
-155
1
1		-1.45831-1.47438-1.48687
Newcastle United
Chelsea		25.0%
49.4%		25.6%
+145
+186
+140
+195
1
1		-1.35577-1.34381-1.36406
Manchester City
Brentford		71.9%
11.0%		17.1%
+123
+238
+115
+235
0
1		-1.23970-1.24587-2.20891
Brighton and Hove Albion
Aston Villa		36.9%
34.5%		28.6%
+293
-108
+275
-115
1
2		-0.67283-0.67188-1.06334
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		8.2%
76.1%		15.6%
+920
-330
+825
-320
0
5		-0.28692-0.29930-0.27260
Chelsea
Manchester United		20.7%
55.8%		23.4%
+540
-178
+470
-180
1
4		-0.45967-0.48639-0.58279
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		55.2%
20.6%		24.2%
-110
+290
-120
+285
1
1		-1.44223-1.45895-1.42018
Leicester City
Newcastle United		17.0%
62.2%		20.8%
+854
-310
+800
-320
0
0		-1.81899-1.81088-1.57075
Chelsea
Manchester City		9.3%
74.9%		15.7%
+500
-164
+450
-165
0
1		-0.49686-0.51547-0.28862
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		9.4%
74.4%		16.1%
+1219
-445
+1100
-470
1
3		-0.22288-0.24049-0.29567
Leeds United
West Ham United		35.9%
36.6%		27.5%
+173
+168
+163
+160
1
3		-1.00062-0.99358-1.00378
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest		66.6%
13.3%		20.1%
-149
+427
-162
+425
0
1		-1.68686-1.70243-2.01853
Aston Villa
Liverpool		9.1%
75.6%		15.3%
+566
-200
+540
-205
1
1		-1.61319-1.60470-1.87817
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.