English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Wolverhampton		28.6%
43.7%		27.7%
+133
+219
+130
+216
1
1		-1.31520-1.25748-1.28529
Crystal Palace
Fulham		28.1%
44.3%		27.6%
+228
+146
+206
+135
2
2		-1.20611-1.26915-1.28855
Manchester United
Bournemouth		66.9%
13.6%		19.5%
-235
+653
-235
+585
1
0		-0.37183-0.39356-0.40143
Brentford
Tottenham		16.3%
63.4%		20.3%
+280
+102
+275
-105
3
1		-1.35480-1.36630-1.81462
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		25.7%
47.7%		26.6%
+339
-122
+311
-120
1
4		-0.61398-0.63486-0.74101
Liverpool
Leicester City		54.9%
22.0%		23.1%
-145
+388
-155
+380
3
0		-0.55446-0.54803-0.60002
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		18.9%
57.6%		23.5%
+344
-135
+335
-140
3
0		-1.51526-1.51236-1.66411
West Ham United
Brentford		15.3%
64.3%		20.4%
+371
-120
+344
-120
0
2		-0.63168-0.64982-0.44192
Manchester City
Everton		73.8%
10.0%		16.1%
-258
+765
-275
+750
3
0		-0.35051-0.35254-0.30316
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace		15.4%
62.8%		21.8%
+382
-126
+365
-133
0
2		-0.60607-0.60528-0.46598
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea		7.5%
77.5%		15.0%
+485
-165
+530
-185
2
2		-1.48444-1.49821-1.89832
Fulham
Southampton		33.7%
39.1%		27.2%
+164
+179
+156
+185
2
0		-0.98951-0.97252-1.08868
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		8.4%
75.9%		15.7%
+731
-252
+725
-272
0
2		-0.35542-0.35508-0.27556
Tottenham
Aston Villa		35.1%
38.3%		26.6%
+214
+133
+203
+130
1
2		-0.86365-0.87462-0.96082
Newcastle United
Leeds United		46.9%
27.2%		25.9%
-160
+420
-165
+411
2
2		-1.52478-1.52625-1.35212
Southampton
Nottingham Forest		29.8%
42.9%		27.2%
+300
+103
+290
-104
3
4		-0.72821-0.72052-0.84560
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.