English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+615
-220

0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-101
u3½-139

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		13.5%
66.5%		20.0%
+767
-282
+750
-305
5
1		-2.18267-2.18374-2.00337
Leicester City
Fulham		32.6%
40.6%		26.8%
+175
+173
+170
+165
3
5		-1.02226-1.01976-0.90059
Manchester United
West Ham United		67.6%
13.6%		18.8%
+106
+269
+100
+280
0
1		-1.32505-1.36098-1.99694
Arsenal
Newcastle United		34.1%
38.0%		27.9%
+206
+134
+195
+130
2
0		-1.13903-1.12701-1.07649
Brentford
Liverpool		7.8%
77.8%		14.3%
+587
-226
+562
-230
0
1		-0.39109-0.40792-0.25075
Leeds United
Manchester City		3.9%
87.1%		9.0%
+1685
-598
+1530
-685
1
2		-0.17810-0.18215-0.13778
Chelsea
Bournemouth		59.8%
17.8%		22.4%
+113
+260
+110
+254
3
1		-0.77494-0.77999-0.51401
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		16.2%
63.0%		20.8%
+342
-118
+309
-115
0
1		-0.63556-0.66738-0.46256
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		33.9%
37.2%		28.8%
+142
+225
+134
+220
0
1		-1.19789-1.20424-0.98811
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		33.7%
37.8%		28.5%
+228
+121
+215
+119
0
1		-0.80995-0.81394-0.97294
West Ham United
Manchester City		2.8%
90.1%		7.1%
+1600
-555
+1450
-585
0
3		-0.19367-0.20427-0.10451
Fulham
Liverpool		7.1%
79.3%		13.6%
+915
-314
+900
-370
0
1		-0.29457-0.28662-0.23208
Chelsea
Arsenal		20.3%
56.5%		23.2%
+459
-158
+500
-175
1
3		-0.51133-0.48800-0.57130
Everton
Leicester City		21.1%
56.3%		22.6%
+303
+105
+280
+101
2
2		-1.27214-1.30637-1.48651
Tottenham
Liverpool		13.3%
68.5%		18.2%
+448
-181
+455
-188
3
4		-0.46968-0.46909-0.37857
Leeds United
Bournemouth		35.7%
36.1%		28.3%
+201
+150
+190
+145
1
4		-0.93815-0.93407-1.01976
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.