English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+635
-231
+575
-245
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-108
u3½-139
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Fulham		73.9%
9.9%		16.3%
-345
+1073
-368
+1060
2
1		-0.27740-0.25979-0.30305
Southampton
Newcastle United		9.2%
75.7%		15.2%
+1149
-380
+1050
-373
1
3		-0.25887-0.27753-0.27889
Aston Villa
Manchester United		12.0%
70.4%		17.6%
+385
-131
+365
-135
0
1		-0.57855-0.58718-0.35095
Nottingham Forest
Brentford		15.2%
63.1%		21.7%
+402
-132
+400
-135
1
2		-0.59146-0.58665-0.46067
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		12.0%
67.6%		20.4%
+475
-161
+450
-174
0
6		-0.50099-0.50491-0.39177
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		15.5%
63.5%		21.0%
+205
+159
+208
+155
3
4		-0.97310-0.96982-0.45454
Manchester United
Tottenham		37.2%
35.9%		26.9%
+145
+188
+140
+180
2
2		-1.35530-1.35147-1.31134
Bournemouth
Southampton		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+197
+157
+190
+155
1
0		-1.11700-1.09533-1.47631
Newcastle United
Everton		44.4%
29.0%		26.6%
-121
+377
-130
+375
4
1		-0.62592-0.61554-0.81195
Arsenal
Manchester City		12.7%
69.1%		18.3%
+420
-147
+425
-165
1
4		-0.54697-0.51845-0.37005
Brentford
Chelsea		13.6%
66.9%		19.5%
+391
-122
+390
-135
2
0		-1.61164-1.63010-1.99400
Liverpool
West Ham United		73.2%
10.4%		16.4%
+104
+270
-105
+265
2
1		-0.72336-0.71392-0.31154
Brighton and Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest		56.1%
18.9%		25.0%
-162
+480
-175
+475
1
3		-1.77987-1.79378-1.66479
Leicester City
Leeds United		34.4%
39.1%		26.4%
+207
+138
+190
+140
1
1		-1.31438-1.32754-1.33071
Fulham
Aston Villa		21.0%
55.4%		23.6%
+412
-132
+380
-140
0
1		-0.58440-0.58225-0.59149
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		30.0%
40.8%		29.3%
+273
+135
+251
+130
0
2		-0.87256-0.86938-0.89749
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.89845 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.94778 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.78100
0.11745
0.16678

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.