English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+635
-231
+575
-245
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-108
u3½-134
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		24.5%
49.3%		26.1%
+150
+204
+150
+190
2
1		-0.93494-0.95787-1.40487
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		37.8%
34.5%		27.7%
+116
+264
+106
+290
0
3		-1.31509-1.39465-1.06401
Arsenal
Liverpool		19.5%
57.8%		22.6%
+154
+181
+160
+165
2
2		-1.32002-1.30970-1.48611
Crystal Palace
Leeds United		28.0%
45.3%		26.6%
+285
+111
+270
+105
5
1		-1.36728-1.34734-1.27154
Manchester City
Southampton		79.8%
7.3%		13.0%
-389
+1240
-425
+1150
4
1		-0.25364-0.25607-0.22576
Bournemouth
Leicester City		12.7%
69.0%		18.2%
+282
+110
+275
+101
1
0		-1.36285-1.36211-2.05987
West Ham United
Fulham		31.3%
41.5%		27.2%
+164
+197
+155
+192
1
0		-0.99093-0.97753-1.16005
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		22.6%
53.2%		24.1%
+161
+184
+155
+171
1
2		-1.06456-1.03891-0.63083
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		47.0%
25.9%		27.1%
-126
+401
-130
+388
0
1		-1.63563-1.62404-1.34989
Newcastle United
Brentford		43.0%
29.9%		27.1%
-103
+317
-105
+300
2
1		-0.70164-0.71123-0.84488
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa		13.1%
67.1%		19.8%
+520
-166
+465
-175
0
2		-0.49413-0.50216-0.39866
Everton
Manchester United		9.3%
75.0%		15.6%
+510
-169
+520
-188
0
2		-0.48926-0.46954-0.28731
Brentford
Manchester United		9.2%
75.2%		15.6%
+466
-158
+425
-165
0
1		-0.51124-0.52106-0.28459
Newcastle United
West Ham United		36.9%
35.3%		27.8%
+131
+255
+123
+250
5
1		-0.85562-0.83850-0.99688
Liverpool
Chelsea		38.7%
33.6%		27.7%
+251
+122
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28790-1.29931-1.28406
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		49.1%
24.3%		26.6%
-175
+491
-185
+490
2
0		-0.48430-0.47950-0.71084
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.