English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+635
-231
+575
-245
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-108
u3½-134
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United		17.9%
59.1%		22.9%
+425
-140
+420
-145
1
2		-0.56562-0.57075-0.52543
Aston Villa
Leicester City		26.1%
49.6%		24.3%
+169
+175
+170
+165
2
1		-1.00961-1.03846-1.34163
Tottenham
Everton		41.5%
32.2%		26.3%
+111
+291
+113
+270
1
1		-1.25562-1.25709-1.33613
Manchester United
Newcastle United		35.1%
37.0%		27.9%
+215
+137
+211
+130
0
2		-0.87993-0.87409-0.99493
Southampton
West Ham United		16.6%
63.1%		20.3%
+419
-129
+375
-130
0
1		-0.59633-0.61554-0.46043
Aston Villa
Chelsea		15.8%
63.6%		20.6%
+508
-157
+500
-165
2
0		-1.82828-1.83898-1.84390
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		34.8%
34.3%		30.9%
+144
+235
+140
+230
1
1		-1.18159-1.16610-1.17396
Leeds United
Arsenal		9.2%
75.5%		15.3%
+1009
-362
+1000
-370
1
4		-0.27111-0.28307-0.28124
Brentford
Brighton and Hove Albion		17.5%
59.6%		22.9%
+483
-157
+440
-160
3
3		-1.45719-1.45453-1.47552
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		32.0%
40.8%		27.1%
+225
+140
+215
+140
1
2		-0.89548-0.92576-0.89541
Fulham
Bournemouth		37.0%
34.2%		28.8%
+190
+159
+186
+155
1
2		-0.97556-0.97995-1.07251
Liverpool
Manchester City		16.1%
63.2%		20.7%
+424
-149
+425
-160
1
4		-0.53507-0.52853-0.45925
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		10.8%
71.5%		17.7%
+1181
-359
+1100
-380
1
4		-0.26698-0.27965-0.33521
Everton
Chelsea		12.4%
69.1%		18.5%
+735
-208
+700
-210
2
2		-1.48589-1.45998-1.68908
Tottenham
Southampton		50.6%
25.6%		23.8%
-117
+369
-120
+360
3
3		-1.33075-1.33689-1.43649
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		12.4%
69.0%		18.6%
+404
-133
+385
-140
0
3		-0.58600-0.58709-0.37082
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.