English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+635
-231
+575
-245
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-108
u3½-134
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Liverpool		26.4%
48.2%		25.5%
+195
+148
+185
+140
0
7		-0.92430-0.92352-0.73056
Everton
Nottingham Forest		31.8%
39.7%		28.5%
+166
+217
+170
+190
2
2		-1.13644-1.15506-1.25456
Leicester City
Southampton		37.8%
35.9%		26.3%
+175
+190
+155
+175
0
1		-1.06557-1.06031-1.02312
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.6%
53.8%		24.6%
+445
-143
+410
-145
0
4		-0.55194-0.57107-0.62027
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.1%		12.1%
+1353
-428
+1300
-435
2
3		-0.23282-0.24210-0.19724
Leeds United
Chelsea		11.4%
71.3%		17.4%
+542
-167
+495
-165
0
1		-0.49235-0.51071-0.33865
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		42.8%
30.2%		27.0%
+139
+234
+135
+220
0
1		-1.22751-1.20341-1.19673
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		22.4%
53.0%		24.6%
+278
+119
+270
+118
0
1		-0.80339-0.81083-0.63450
Newcastle United
Manchester City		7.0%
79.7%		13.3%
+590
-193
+550
-180
0
2		-0.44253-0.46502-0.22646
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		8.9%
74.8%		16.3%
+564
-185
+553
-195
0
2		-0.45240-0.44970-0.28982
Everton
Arsenal		10.1%
73.6%		16.3%
+1031
-288
+979
-320
0
4		-0.31379-0.31601-0.30716
Chelsea
Tottenham		35.5%
37.5%		27.0%
+161
+200
+155
+185
0
2		-1.11795-1.09679-0.98184
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		63.0%
15.6%		21.3%
-142
+432
-145
+425
0
0		-1.44787-1.40474-1.54487
Manchester City
Bournemouth		84.2%
4.9%		10.9%
-265
+1015
-310
+860
4
1		-0.30703-0.31769-0.17156
Arsenal
Leicester City		56.7%
20.8%		22.5%
-169
+505
-170
+460
1
0		-0.48542-0.51118-0.56734
Southampton
Leeds United		28.9%
45.7%		25.4%
+300
-103
+302
-105
0
1		-0.70225-0.71158-0.78281
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.