English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+635
-231
+575
-245
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-108
u3½-134
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leicester City
Aston Villa		18.7%
60.0%		21.3%
+266
+117
+280
+110
4
2		-1.31625-1.35197-1.67718
Arsenal
Everton		52.0%
23.6%		24.4%
-205
+751
-225
+703
0
1		-2.14140-2.12151-1.44460
Fulham
Chelsea		8.0%
77.1%		14.9%
+500
-156
+475
-160
0
0		-1.44911-1.43427-1.90361
Tottenham
Fulham		47.7%
27.1%		25.2%
+115
+241
+110
+235
1
0		-0.78342-0.77910-0.74049
Manchester United
Arsenal		24.6%
50.7%		24.7%
+335
-113
+300
-115
2
3		-0.65187-0.67598-0.67976
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.1%		9.3%
+1196
-348
+1075
-410
0
3		-0.25403-0.26138-0.13831
Brentford
Leeds United		36.1%
36.0%		27.9%
+203
+143
+195
+133
0
0		-1.30612-1.32584-1.27601
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		43.5%
29.0%		27.5%
-114
+360
-116
+360
0
0		-1.32253-1.31264-1.29157
Everton
West Ham United		22.0%
54.4%		23.6%
+378
-115
+370
-122
0
2		-0.64735-0.64173-0.60912
Aston Villa
Southampton		37.8%
35.3%		26.9%
+195
+168
+175
+165
1
0		-1.10235-1.05205-0.97228
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leicester City		40.0%
32.6%		27.4%
-117
+333
-120
+310
2
2		-1.40621-1.39014-1.29499
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth		32.0%
38.7%		29.2%
+171
+190
+168
+185
1
1		-1.20211-1.17694-1.22953
Chelsea
Liverpool		20.7%
55.7%		23.6%
+283
+107
+275
-104
0
0		-1.30265-1.34396-1.44596
Tottenham
Manchester City		6.4%
81.7%		11.9%
+545
-195
+600
-209
2
4		-0.43680-0.41006-0.20192
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		56.3%
20.0%		23.7%
-143
+451
-148
+425
1
1		-1.40230-1.40368-1.43910
Arsenal
Tottenham		31.6%
42.4%		26.0%
+124
+246
+120
+230
2
0		-0.82426-0.83400-1.15261
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.