English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-231
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leeds United
Leicester City		20.1%
58.0%		21.9%
+204
+140
+215
+124
0
2		-0.89860-0.85104-0.54487
Aston Villa
Fulham		36.7%
35.4%		27.9%
+145
+201
+136
+202
0
3		-1.13171-1.14501-1.03965
Tottenham
Manchester United		30.5%
43.8%		25.7%
+200
+140
+205
+135
0
2		-0.90666-0.89279-0.82469
West Ham United
Liverpool		11.6%
70.8%		17.6%
+630
-235
+600
-240
0
1		-0.38668-0.39782-0.34518
Everton
Newcastle United		22.1%
53.7%		24.1%
+440
-147
+440
-155
0
1		-0.54884-0.54300-0.62137
Chelsea
Brentford		52.4%
22.9%		24.7%
-118
+350
-115
+355
0
0		-1.36129-1.33294-1.39849
Southampton
Bournemouth		35.4%
37.0%		27.6%
+183
+168
+180
+175
1
0		-1.07388-1.05771-1.03956
Wolverhampton
Crystal Palace		21.9%
51.9%		26.2%
+290
+110
+300
+105
1
2		-0.76830-0.75965-0.65549
Nottingham Forest
Brighton and Hove Albion		10.1%
71.4%		18.5%
+750
-247
+760
-275
0
0		-1.65449-1.68029-1.68886
Manchester City
Liverpool		57.0%
20.1%		22.8%
-115
+289
-115
+275
0
1		-1.38529-1.36063-1.60202
West Ham United
Southampton		45.3%
29.2%		25.5%
+150
+200
+145
+195
1
1		-1.24240-1.25358-1.36579
Arsenal
Leeds United		67.1%
13.8%		19.1%
-154
+415
-160
+450
1
0		-0.53288-0.50672-0.39963
Chelsea
Aston Villa		49.9%
25.0%		25.1%
+102
+301
+100
+300
2
0		-0.73122-0.72824-0.69547
Newcastle United
Manchester United		19.4%
57.8%		22.7%
+251
+112
+245
+110
0
0		-1.33488-1.30328-1.48087
Everton
Tottenham		11.3%
72.1%		16.6%
+635
-210
+625
-220
0
2		-0.41318-0.41131-0.32735
Bournemouth
Fulham		18.5%
58.4%		23.1%
+303
-103
+310
-109
2
2		-1.32381-1.32527-1.40417
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.