German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
23.5%
54.6%
21.9%
+299
-106

1.21
1.96
3.17
o2½-114
u2½+100

Games for Nov 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg
42.7%
31.8%
25.5%
-130
+335
-135
+338
2
1
-0.60050-0.60574-0.85153
VfL Bochum
Freiburg
10.5%
73.8%
15.7%
+345
-120
+340
-120
1
2
-0.63237-0.63358-0.30315
RB Leipzig
Darmstadt 98
62.3%
17.7%
20.0%
-215
+555
-230
+560
3
1
-0.41653-0.39751-0.47262
Werder Bremen
Dortmund
8.8%
78.1%
13.1%
+850
-355
+875
-370
0
1
-0.28169-0.27648-0.24769
FC Heidenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt
10.0%
75.1%
14.9%
+370
-128
+415
-126
0
2
-0.61066-0.59232-0.28696
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
7.3%
80.1%
12.5%
+1855
-800
+1800
-900
0
3
-0.14827-0.15000-0.22131
FC Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
15.7%
65.7%
18.6%
+1001
-350
+980
-379
0
3
-0.28128-0.27954-0.41989
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
38.5%
36.2%
25.2%
+158
+165
+155
+160
3
2
-0.97755-0.97862-0.95360
Union Berlin
Dortmund
16.3%
64.4%
19.3%
+400
-140
+365
-150
2
4
-0.56586-0.55995-0.44069
VfL Bochum
RB Leipzig
7.0%
80.9%
12.1%
+1000
-343
+775
-350
0
0
-1.91007-1.88335-2.11056
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart
31.1%
43.5%
25.4%
+315
-111
+295
-110
1
3
-0.66875-0.68730-0.83289
Darmstadt 98
Augsburg
22.5%
55.3%
22.2%
+350
-122
+355
-125
2
1
-1.53842-1.54961-1.49068
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach
20.4%
58.7%
20.9%
+222
+120
+215
+120
2
2
-1.37263-1.37737-1.56542
Augsburg
Freiburg
13.0%
69.3%
17.7%
+327
-114
+320
-115
0
2
-0.66279-0.66460-0.36723
Werder Bremen
Darmstadt 98
31.0%
44.5%
24.5%
+133
+195
+140
+175
2
4
-1.10933-1.06025-0.80912
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
50.8%
25.9%
23.3%
-129
+308
-122
+300
2
2
-1.53424-1.48118-1.45732
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77599 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77152 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60896
0.16702
0.16256

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.