German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Games for Dec 6, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Orig.
Draw %
Closing
ML
Orig. Total
Goals
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach
14.6%
67.8%
17.6%
+308
-107
+320
-110
3.49
o2¾-108
u2¾-110
o2½-130
u2½+110
1st H
10:00
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
43.6%
31.7%
24.7%
+131
+225
+130
+225
3
0
-0.86724-0.86474-0.82897
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
16.9%
64.1%
19.0%
+360
-130
+330
-135
0
1
-0.59104-0.60398-0.44499
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4.9%
85.3%
9.8%
+1300
-460
+1400
-515
2
5
-0.22704-0.20843-0.15912
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg
28.4%
46.1%
25.5%
+285
+115
+286
+115
0
1
-0.78856-0.79502-0.77444
VfL Bochum
VfB Stuttgart
10.1%
75.0%
14.9%
+825
-305
+800
-330
0
2
-0.31106-0.29890-0.28706
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim
50.3%
26.4%
23.3%
+123
+227
+113
+225
3
4
-1.20828-1.22503-1.33264
Freiburg
Dortmund
21.6%
56.7%
21.7%
+343
-118
+337
-125
0
4
-0.63697-0.61860-0.56731
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
5.4%
84.5%
10.1%
+2000
-768
+1900
-935
0
3
-0.14968-0.14302-0.16832
Wolfsburg
FC Heidenheim
37.7%
35.4%
26.9%
+155
+195
+150
+190
3
1
-0.96969-0.96748-0.97591
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart
23.0%
55.1%
22.0%
+360
-129
+328
-125
3
2
-1.55037-1.49544-1.47111
Hoffenheim
Augsburg
28.7%
47.3%
23.9%
+260
+114
+255
+110
0
0
-1.29335-1.32610-1.42954
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig
12.5%
71.1%
16.4%
+425
-153
+390
-170
0
0
-1.52134-1.57591-1.80783
Holstein Kiel
Werder Bremen
14.6%
67.7%
17.6%
+440
-161
+415
-165
1
2
-0.50710-0.52197-0.38986
Dortmund
Mainz 05
45.3%
30.4%
24.3%
-104
+286
-110
+285
1
3
-1.37888-1.39776-1.19198
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Bochum
71.4%
12.1%
16.5%
-363
+1000
-400
+960
1
1
-1.93233-1.95108-1.80011
Bayern Munich
FC St. Pauli
78.4%
8.5%
13.1%
-525
+1500
-545
+1350
1
0
-0.20786-0.21742-0.24351
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86724 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86474 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.82897
0.03827
0.03577

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.