MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 17, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Pittsburgh Pirates (19-25)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Paul Skenes
Kyle Hendricks
50.3%
49.7%
-109
+101
-105
+100

-1½+150
+1½-170
3.95
3.91
7.86

o7½-105
u7½-115
Washington Nationals (20-22)
Philadelphia Phillies (31-13)
Jake Irvin
Zack Wheeler
36.2%
63.8%
+226
-246
+228
-255
+1½-105
-1½-115
+1½+100
-1½-115
3.33
4.77
8.10
o7½+100
u7½-113
o7½-105
u7½-115
Chicago White Sox (14-30)
New York Yankees (29-15)
Mike Clevinger
Nestor Cortes
28.1%
71.9%
+227
-250
+245
-250
+1½+105
-1½-125
+1½+107
-1½-115
2.94
5.21
8.15
o8-115
u8+100
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Seattle Mariners (24-20)
Baltimore Orioles (27-14)
Bryce Miller
UNDEDICED Undecided
45.5%
54.5%




3.93
4.40
8.33


Tampa Bay Rays (22-22)
Toronto Blue Jays (19-23)
Undecided Undecided
Chris Bassitt
43.0%
57.0%




3.94
4.67
8.61


New York Mets (19-23)
Miami Marlins (13-32)
Christian Scott
Jesús Luzardo
50.0%
50.0%
-112
+105
-110
+106
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-159
4.51
4.51
9.02
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½-105
Minnesota Twins (24-18)
Cleveland Guardians (27-17)
Simeon Woods Richardson
Triston McKenzie
47.9%
52.1%
+107
-114
+108
-114
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+176
4.48
4.70
9.18
o8-113
u8+100
o8-110
u8-105
San Diego Padres (22-24)
Atlanta Braves (26-14)
Matt Waldron
Max Fried
36.4%
63.6%
+187
-205
+190
-205
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-113
-1½+100
4.18
5.61
9.79
o8½+101
u8+102
o8½+100
u8+100
Oakland Athletics (19-26)
Kansas City Royals (26-19)
Undecided Undecided
Cole Ragans
36.0%
64.0%




3.27
4.74
8.01


Los Angeles Angels (16-28)
Texas Rangers (23-22)
Tyler Anderson
Andrew Heaney
44.2%
55.8%
+155
-168
+155
-170
+1½-132
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+115
4.07
4.67
8.74
o9-108
u9-103
o9-115
u9+100
Milwaukee Brewers (26-17)
Houston Astros (18-25)
Freddy Peralta
Hunter Brown
60.9%
39.1%
-106
-102
-106
+105
-1½+152
+1½-172
-1½+145
+1½-150
4.66
3.51
8.17
o8½-102
u8½-113
o8½-105
u8½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Boston Red Sox (22-21)
St. Louis Cardinals (18-25)
Brayan Bello
Kyle Gibson
43.2%
56.8%
-111
+102
-110
+101
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-164
3.62
4.34
7.96
o8-105
u8-108
o8-110
u8-110
Detroit Tigers (21-22)
Arizona Diamondbacks (21-23)
Tarik Skubal
Ryne Nelson
56.3%
43.7%
-139
+129
-140
+138
-1½+120
+1½-136
-1½+115
+1½-130
4.10
3.45
7.55
o8-105
u8-108
o8-110
u8+100
All Bet Values Active
Cincinnati Reds (18-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (29-16)
Frankie Montas
James Paxton
39.1%
60.9%
+187
-200
+190
-205
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-113
-1½-105
3.56
4.70
8.26
o9+107
u8½+105
o8½-120
u9-120
Colorado Rockies (15-28)
San Francisco Giants (20-25)
Ryan Feltner
Kyle Harrison
36.0%
64.0%
+150
-160
+155
-155
+1½-148
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+135
3.04
4.51
7.55
o7½+100
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 16, 2024
Games for May 18, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Cincinnati Reds (18-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (29-16)
31.5%
68.5%
+262
-300
+270
-290
+1½+142
-1½-145
+1½+140
-1½-143
7.45
o7½+105
u8-113
o7½+105
u7½-110
4th
BOT
3
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Washington Nationals
Chicago White Sox
44.7%
55.3%
+156
-161
+153
-159
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+136
0
2
-0.49058-0.49704-0.59280
Miami Marlins
Detroit Tigers
40.7%
59.3%
+145
-153
+147
-155
+1½-140
-1½+132
+1½-140
-1½+125
2
0
-0.90892-0.91684-0.89825
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
40.4%
59.6%
+138
-145
+138
-148
+1½-158
-1½+146
+1½-160
-1½+145
2
10
-0.53645-0.53302-0.51793
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
39.2%
60.8%
+123
-130
+127
-132
+1½-180
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+170
2
3
-0.58410-0.57338-0.49806
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
58.6%
41.4%
-172
+164
-175
+170
-1½-110
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+105
10
2
-0.46940-0.45869-0.53387
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
38.6%
61.4%
+149
-154
+146
-151
+1½-153
-1½+137
+1½-155
-1½+141
4
2
-0.92015-0.90822-0.95220
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
29.3%
70.7%
+245
-273
+270
-280
+1½+112
-1½-128
+1½+120
-1½-130
6
3
-1.25987-1.31543-1.22837
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
45.7%
54.3%
+101
-110
+105
-107
+1½-195
-1½+178
+1½-195
-1½+180
6
2
-0.71924-0.72256-0.78318
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels
56.9%
43.1%
-137
+128
-138
+130
-1½+124
+1½-138
-1½+131
+1½-140
7
6
-0.56460-0.55953-0.56442
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
36.9%
63.1%
+165
-175
+170
-177
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
1
2
-0.46561-0.45719-0.45977
Washington Nationals
Chicago White Sox
47.2%
52.8%
-107
+102
-105
+101
-1½+152
+1½-165

0
4
-0.71498-0.70779-0.63879
Cleveland Guardians
Texas Rangers
52.1%
47.9%
+112
-117
+110
-117
+1½-183
-1½+170

7
4
-0.76222-0.75717-0.65168
New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins
53.3%
46.7%
-106
+101
-106
+107
-1½+150
+1½-158
-1½+150
+1½-155
5
1
-0.67645-0.66209-0.62858
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
37.2%
62.8%
+144
-150
+145
-150
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+133
3
4
-0.52062-0.51896-0.46590
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
34.5%
65.5%
+180
-188
+176
-180
+1½-130
-1½+132
+1½-125
-1½+115
0
7
-0.43638-0.44699-0.42367
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
48.5%
51.5%
+112
-119
+110
-115
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
4
5
-0.62491-0.63673-0.66409
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks51-4 (0.200)0-0.69299 
Sportsbooks51-4 (0.200)0-0.69612 
DRatings51-4 (0.200)0-0.70104
-0.00805
-0.00492

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.