MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 21, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cleveland Guardians (25-21)
Minnesota Twins (26-21)
Gavin Williams
Chris Paddack
51.1%
48.9%
+108
-116
+106
-115
+1½-212
-1½+183
+1½-205
-1½+190
4.21
4.10
8.31
o7½+102
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Kansas City Royals (27-23)
San Francisco Giants (29-20)
Daniel Lynch IV
Logan Webb
32.1%
67.9%
+187
-200
+185
-200
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-122
-1½+105
2.63
4.47
7.10
o7½+100
u7½-112
o7½+105
u7½-115
Atlanta Braves (24-24)
Washington Nationals (22-27)
AJ Smith-Shawver
Trevor Williams
59.2%
40.8%
-148
+139
-153
+142
-1½+110
+1½-123
-1½+105
+1½-125
5.04
4.07
9.11
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-110
New York Mets (29-20)
Boston Red Sox (25-25)
Tylor Megill
Garrett Crochet
44.4%
55.6%
+130
-139
+130
-140
+1½-163
-1½+148
+1½-165
-1½+145
3.20
3.79
6.99
o7½-115
u8-113
o8-105
u8-110
Texas Rangers (25-24)
New York Yankees (28-19)
Jacob deGrom
Ryan Yarbrough
47.9%
52.1%
+104
-112
+102
-111

+1½-215
-1½+190
3.46
3.69
7.15
o7½-113
u8-115
o7½-115
u8-120
San Diego Padres (27-19)
Toronto Blue Jays (23-24)
Randy Vásquez
Kevin Gausman
44.5%
55.5%
+148
-158
+148
-157
+1½-143
-1½+130
+1½-142
-1½+130
3.76
4.33
8.09
o9+107
u9-120
o8½-120
u8½+100
Philadelphia Phillies (30-18)
Colorado Rockies (8-40)
Taijuan Walker
Carson Palmquist
64.8%
35.2%
-205
+189
-207
+190
-1½-143
+1½+130
-1½-147
+1½+130
5.52
3.97
9.49
o11½+105
u11½-118
o11-110
u11-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (22-25)
Oakland Athletics (22-27)
Jack Kochanowicz
JP Sears
39.4%
60.6%
+154
-164
+153
-165
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-131
-1½+115
3.38
4.50
7.88
o10½-115
u10½+102
o10½-115
u10½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Arizona Diamondbacks (26-23)
Los Angeles Dodgers (30-19)
Corbin Burnes
Dustin May
43.0%
57.0%
+128
-137
+130
-140
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-157
-1½+140
3.96
4.70
8.66
o9-123
u9½-115
o9-115
u9+115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 20, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Cincinnati Reds (25-25)
Pittsburgh Pirates (16-33)
51.7%
48.3%
-124
+115
-124
+114
-1½+137
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-153
8.24
o8+105
u8-113
o8+100
u8-110
7th
TOP
1
2
Chicago Cubs (29-20)
Miami Marlins (19-28)
51.8%
48.2%
-139
+131
-140
+130
-1½+113
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-130
8.34
o9-110
u9-103
o9-115
u9-105
4th
BOT
1
1
Houston Astros (25-23)
Tampa Bay Rays (22-26)
51.4%
48.6%
-160
+153
-158
+152
-1½+110
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-115
6.59
o8-113
u8½-113
o8-115
u8½-105
5th
BOT
2
3
Baltimore Orioles (15-32)
Milwaukee Brewers (24-25)
48.1%
51.9%
-106
-102
-103
+100


6.81
o8½-110
u9-122
o8½-110
u8½+100
5th
TOP
1
0
Detroit Tigers (32-17)
St. Louis Cardinals (27-22)
51.1%
48.9%
+105
-112
+102
-112

+1½-200
-1½+175
9.85
o8½-118
u9-118
o8½-115
u9-120
5th
BOT
2
0
Seattle Mariners (27-20)
Chicago White Sox (15-34)
55.4%
44.6%
-139
+131
-140
+130
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-135
8.00
o8½+100
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
1st
BOT
3
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
37.0%
63.0%
+133
-139
+134
-141
+1½-165
-1½+149
+1½-160
-1½+145
1
2
-0.55271-0.54837-0.46189
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
42.0%
58.0%
+183
-199
+181
-190
+1½-108
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-105
4
8
-0.42587-0.43383-0.54416
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
41.8%
58.2%
+123
-133
+125
-132
+1½-150
-1½+138
+1½-155
-1½+140
1
6
-0.57975-0.57725-0.54087
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
39.2%
60.8%
+164
-178
+172
-182
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½+104
0
10
-0.46474-0.45086-0.49794
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
45.9%
54.1%
+125
-134
+133
-136
+1½-150
-1½+136
+1½-145
-1½+137
4
12
-0.57442-0.55661-0.61374
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
51.4%
48.6%
-142
+133
-143
+136
-1½+100
+1½-119
-1½+107
+1½-115
10
6
-0.54894-0.54235-0.66473
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
39.9%
60.1%
+157
-171
+161
-168
+1½-120
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+108
2
3
-0.48036-0.47697-0.50953
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
47.0%
53.0%
+103
-113
+108
-110
+1½-190
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+170
2
4
-0.65676-0.65120-0.63473
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
53.9%
46.1%
-204
+187
-190
+181
-1½-128
+1½+120
-1½-120
+1½+115
8
6
-0.41820-0.43383-0.61876
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
51.9%
48.1%
-118
+108
-114
+110
-1½+130
+1½-147
-1½+140
+1½-152
8
4
-0.63563-0.63864-0.65491
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
35.4%
64.6%
+215
-230
+215
-223
+1½+120
-1½-128
+1½+120
-1½-125
5
3
-1.16174-1.15525-1.03933
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
40.6%
59.4%
+175
-191
+182
-188
+1½-105
-1½-112
+1½+100
-1½-106
3
2
-1.03139-1.04410-0.90162
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
32.2%
67.8%
+210
-232
+216
-238
+1½+112
-1½-130
+1½+110
-1½-122
4
7
-0.37955-0.37117-0.38858
Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays
40.1%
59.9%
+188
-205
+181
-195
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-109
0
3
-0.41647-0.43072-0.51259
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
39.0%
61.0%
+179
-195
+181
-195
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-108
3
5
-0.43323-0.43072-0.49439
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
54.2%
45.8%
-147
+137
-145
+136
-1½+105
+1½-122
-1½+112
+1½-125
7
6
-0.53589-0.53996-0.61315
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks148-6 (0.571)0-0.65787 
Sportsbooks148-6 (0.571)0-0.65710 
DRatings149-5 (0.643)0-0.65776
0.00011
-0.00066

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.