Heracles Almelo at Ajax

Updated

Heracles Almelo

6.2%3.8%90.0%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.26Projected Goals 3.83
0Final Score 3

Ajax

Last 5 Games

Heracles Almelo
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Go Ahead Eagles-120
T 0-0 at NEC Nijmegen+190
T 1-1 vs Cambuur-120
W 2-4 vs Groningen+135
L 1-2 at Vitesse+430
Ajax
Money Line
W 2-1 at PSV Eindhoven-115
W 3-0 at Utrecht-220
W 0-5 vs Fortuna Sittard
W 2-0 at Feyenoord-125
L 2-1 vs AZ Alkmaar-410

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.0%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo+3000+1700+1500+2195+1976+1500+2195+2059.6
Ajax-1700-850-667-839-1035-667-667-554.8
Draw+1200+775+710+872+897+710+897+839.7
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo+2800----+2500+2500+2059.6
Ajax-1400-----1000-1000-554.8
Draw+1075----+850+850+839.7

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Heracles Almelo: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Heracles Almelo: 0.0%
Ajax: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Heracles Almelo: 20.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Heracles Almelo ML moved from +1700 to +1500
Ajax ML moved from -1000 to -1200

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Heracles Almelo: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Heracles Almelo: 0.0%
Ajax: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Heracles Almelo: 30.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Heracles Almelo ML moved from +2800 to +2500
No Steam Moves On Ajax ML

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.0%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo4-115o3¾+100o3¾-102--o3¾-102o3¾+100o3½-107
Underu4-105u3¾-120u3¾-118--u3¾-118u3¾-118u3½+107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½-107
Under-----u3½+107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3½-120 to o3¾-108
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes22.5%
 
No77.5%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 01.68%
Exactly 214.02%
Exactly 419.52%
Exactly 610.87%
Exactly 83.24%
Exactly 100.60%
 
Exactly 16.86%
Exactly 319.10%
Exactly 515.95%
Exactly 76.34%
Exactly 91.47%
Exactly 110.22%
Exact Goals Scored - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 076.97%
Exactly 120.15%
Exactly 22.64%
Exactly 30.23%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 02.18%
Exactly 18.34%
Exactly 215.96%
Exactly 320.35%
Exactly 419.46%
Exactly 514.89%
Exactly 69.49%
Exactly 75.19%
Exactly 82.48%
Exactly 91.05%
Exactly 100.40%
Exactly 110.14%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 015.07%
Exactly 226.99%
Exactly 48.05%
Exactly 60.96%
 
Exactly 128.52%
Exactly 317.02%
Exactly 53.05%
Exactly 70.26%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 088.59%
Exactly 110.74%
Exactly 20.65%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 017.02%
Exactly 130.14%
Exactly 226.69%
Exactly 315.75%
Exactly 46.98%
Exactly 52.47%
Exactly 60.73%
Exactly 70.18%

Alternate Props

Spread

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals85.10%
Wins by 3+ goals68.16%
Wins by 4+ goals48.17%
Wins by 5+ goals29.93%
Wins by 6+ goals16.41%
Wins by 7+ goals7.99%
Wins by 8+ goals3.47%
Wins by 9+ goals1.34%
Wins by 10+ goals0.45%
Wins by 11+ goals0.11%

Exact Winning Margin

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Heracles Almelo
Wins by 1 goal0.70%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal10.22%
Wins by 2 goals16.93%
Wins by 3 goals20.00%
Wins by 4 goals18.24%
Wins by 5 goals13.51%
Wins by 6 goals8.42%
Wins by 7 goals4.52%
Wins by 8 goals2.13%
Wins by 9 goals0.90%
Wins by 10 goals0.34%
Wins by 11 goals0.11%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.598.32%1.68%
1.591.46%8.54%
2.577.44%22.56%
3.558.33%41.67%
4.538.81%61.19%
5.522.86%77.14%
6.511.99%88.01%
7.55.65%94.35%
8.52.41%97.59%

Total Goals Heracles Almelo Over/Under

OverUnder
0.523.03%76.97%
1.52.88%97.12%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.597.82%2.18%
1.589.47%10.53%
2.573.51%26.49%
3.553.16%46.84%
4.533.70%66.30%
5.518.82%81.18%
6.59.33%90.67%
7.54.14%95.86%
8.51.66%98.34%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.584.93%15.07%
1.556.40%43.60%
2.529.42%70.58%
3.512.40%87.60%
4.54.35%95.65%
5.51.30%98.70%

Score Props

Correct Score

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score01234
0
1.68%
6.42%
12.28%
15.66%
14.98%
1
0.44%
1.68%
3.22%
4.10%
3.92%
Heracles Almelo
1-00.44%
Draw
0-01.68%
1-11.68%
2-20.42%
Ajax
0-16.42%
0-212.28%
1-23.22%
0-315.66%
1-34.10%
2-30.54%
0-414.98%
1-43.92%
2-40.51%

Correct Score - First Half

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score01234567
0
15.07%
26.70%
23.64%
13.96%
6.18%
2.19%
0.65%
0.16%
1
1.83%
3.24%
2.86%
1.69%
0.75%
0.27%
0.08%
0.02%
2
0.11%
0.20%
0.17%
0.10%
0.05%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
Heracles Almelo
1-01.83%
2-00.11%
2-10.20%
Draw
0-015.07%
1-13.24%
2-20.17%
Ajax
0-126.70%
0-223.64%
1-22.86%
0-313.96%
1-31.69%
2-30.10%
0-46.18%
1-40.75%
0-52.19%
1-50.27%
0-60.65%
0-70.16%