Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Las Palmas
Cadiz 		30.2%
39.9%		29.9%
+405
-115

0.95
1.14		2.09
o2-128
u2¼-125

Almeria
Mallorca 		26.1%
46.8%		27.1%
+648
-176

0.97
1.39		2.36
o2¼-118
u2½-124

Volatility Bet Value Active
Real Madrid
Villarreal 		64.5%
15.3%		20.2%
+108
+233

2.06
0.89		2.95
o3¼-112
u3½-125

Volatility Bet Value Active
Sevilla
Athletic Club 		17.6%
58.4%		24.0%
+386
-125

0.80
1.69		2.49
o2½-114
u2½-102

Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona 		5.9%
81.5%		12.6%
+975
-354

0.60
2.70		3.30
o3¼+100
u3+117

Osasuna
Atletico Madrid 		8.9%
74.1%		17.0%
+715
-227

0.63
2.24		2.87
o2¾-105
u2¾-112

Celta Vigo
Granada 		30.9%
41.7%		27.4%
+116
+257

1.09
1.31		2.40
o2½-128
u2¾-117

Real Sociedad
Betis 		31.6%
40.9%		27.5%
+202
+165

1.11
1.30		2.41
o2-139
u2¼-122

Girona
Valencia 		22.5%
52.6%		24.9%
+140
+190

0.96
1.61		2.57
o2¾-110
u3-134

Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Valencia
Real Sociedad		19.4%
57.1%		23.5%
+730
-206
+670
-200
0
1		-0.41644-0.43951-0.56091
Barcelona
Almeria		69.6%
12.0%		18.3%
-256
+635
-270
+640
2
0		-0.36048-0.36071-0.36193
Betis
Las Palmas		40.1%
31.8%		28.2%
+140
+223
+140
+215
2
2		-1.22496-1.21963-1.26677
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo		41.3%
30.3%		28.4%
+245
+133
+226
+140
1
2		-0.86771-0.89715-1.19452
Atletico Madrid
Getafe		52.5%
20.6%		26.9%
-133
+423
-140
+410
3
0		-0.58555-0.58749-0.64420
Granada
Rayo Vallecano		26.9%
46.5%		26.6%
+579
-182
+575
-190
1
2		-0.46711-0.47188-0.76516
Cadiz
Sevilla		12.9%
65.9%		21.2%
+260
+115
+270
+115
1
0		-1.31316-1.32920-2.05019
Villarreal
Girona		30.8%
42.1%		27.1%
+365
-149
+360
-145
1
0		-1.56633-1.55946-1.17866
Alaves
Real Madrid		4.1%
85.4%		10.5%
+1285
-439
+1250
-470
0
5		-0.22679-0.23163-0.15771
Mallorca
Osasuna		19.7%
55.2%		25.1%
+210
+177
+195
+180
1
1		-1.09503-1.12763-1.38346
Real Sociedad
Barcelona		12.7%
68.1%		19.2%
+409
-138
+405
-135
0
2		-0.57220-0.58152-0.38443
Almeria
Betis		14.2%
66.2%		19.6%
+677
-244
+700
-269
2
3		-0.37050-0.35961-0.41189
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia		18.2%
58.9%		22.9%
+272
+128
+265
+125
0
0		-1.17196-1.16488-1.47403
Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid		9.7%
72.9%		17.3%
+741
-241
+740
-260
0
1		-0.37241-0.36586-0.31552
Getafe
Cadiz		35.3%
32.9%		31.8%
+295
+113
+278
+120
0
1		-0.78148-0.81862-1.11121
Osasuna
Athletic Club		13.2%
66.0%		20.8%
+845
-238
+830
-240
2
2		-1.55647-1.54778-1.56820
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.66729 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.67328 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.72987
-0.06258
-0.05659

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (28-1-6, 90 pts)29.91.56.696.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (23-5-7, 76 pts)24.95.47.782.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.07.16.978.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (22-9-4, 70 pts)23.79.64.775.70.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-11, 62 pts)18.57.711.867.30.0%0.3%99.7%0.0%
6Betis (14-8-13, 55 pts)15.09.213.858.80.0%0.0%52.1%0.0%
7Real Sociedad (14-9-12, 54 pts)15.110.212.858.00.0%0.0%47.2%0.0%
8Villarreal (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.014.29.851.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Valencia (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.214.09.852.30.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
10Getafe (10-12-13, 43 pts)10.913.313.846.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Alaves (11-15-9, 42 pts)11.816.49.845.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (10-14-11, 41 pts)10.915.311.844.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-7, 40 pts)11.918.37.943.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-18-7, 37 pts)11.019.27.840.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Mallorca (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.114.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-14, 35 pts)7.715.614.837.80.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
17Celta Vigo (8-17-10, 34 pts)8.918.310.837.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
18Cadiz (5-16-14, 29 pts)6.017.114.932.90.0%0.0%0.0%93.7%
19Granada (4-22-9, 21 pts)5.123.19.925.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-22-11, 17 pts)2.823.411.820.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.