Real Madrid at Villarreal

Updated

Real Madrid

64.5%20.2%15.3%
Real Madrid WinDrawWin
2.06Projected Goals 0.89
4Final Score 4

Villarreal

Last 5 Games

Real Madrid
Money Line
W 0-5 vs Alaves-470
W 4-0 at Granada-175
W 0-3 vs Cadiz-290
W 1-0 at Real Sociedad+222
W 2-3 vs Barcelona-138
Villarreal
Money Line
W 1-0 at Girona+360
W 2-3 vs Sevilla-103
L 2-3 at Celta Vigo+170
W 0-3 vs Rayo Vallecano-125
W 2-1 at Almeria-105

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Real Madrid-105+117+120+121+116+121+121+128.8
Villarreal+250+208+200+205+215+205+215+215.8
Draw+300+293+285+292+293+292+293+305.9
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Real Madrid+103-+118--110+115+118+128.8
Villarreal+223-+199-+200+205+205+215.8
Draw+291-+285-+270+290+290+305.9

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Real Madrid: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Villarreal: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Real Madrid: 50.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Real Madrid: 0.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Real Madrid ML moved from +106 to -105
Villarreal ML moved from +218 to +208

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Real Madrid: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Villarreal: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Real Madrid: 50.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Real Madrid: 0.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Real Madrid ML
Villarreal ML moved from +216 to +199

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3¼-115o3½-101o3¼-120o3¼-118o3¼-118o3¼-118o3¼-118o3¼-107
Underu3¼-105u3½-117u3¼+100u3¼-102u3¼+102u3¼-102u3½-117u3¼+107
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½+110o3½+100o3½+105-o3½-110o3½+100o3½+105o3¼-107
Underu3½-130u3½-120u3½-125-u3½-120u3½-120u3½-120u3¼+107

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes51.5%
 
No48.5%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 05.21%
Exactly 222.74%
Exactly 416.54%
Exactly 64.82%
Exactly 80.75%
 
Exactly 115.39%
Exactly 322.40%
Exactly 59.78%
Exactly 72.03%
Exactly 90.25%
Exact Goals Scored - Real Madrid
Exactly 012.71%
Exactly 126.22%
Exactly 227.04%
Exactly 318.59%
Exactly 49.59%
Exactly 53.96%
Exactly 61.36%
Exactly 70.40%
Exactly 80.10%
Exact Goals Scored - Villarreal
Exactly 040.99%
Exactly 136.56%
Exactly 216.30%
Exactly 34.85%
Exactly 41.08%
Exactly 50.19%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 025.46%
Exactly 223.83%
Exactly 43.72%
Exactly 60.23%
 
Exactly 134.83%
Exactly 310.87%
Exactly 51.02%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Real Madrid
Exactly 038.48%
Exactly 136.75%
Exactly 217.55%
Exactly 35.59%
Exactly 41.33%
Exactly 50.25%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Villarreal
Exactly 066.17%
Exactly 127.32%
Exactly 25.64%
Exactly 30.78%

Alternate Props

Spread

Real Madrid
Wins by 2+ goals40.27%
Wins by 3+ goals20.62%
Wins by 4+ goals8.77%
Wins by 5+ goals3.16%
Villarreal
Wins by 2+ goals4.83%
Wins by 3+ goals1.16%
Wins by 4+ goals0.21%

Exact Winning Margin

Real Madrid
Villarreal
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
Real Madrid
Wins by 1 goal24.17%
Wins by 2 goals19.65%
Wins by 3 goals11.84%
Wins by 4 goals5.62%
Wins by 5 goals2.19%
Villarreal
Wins by 1 goal10.45%
Wins by 2 goals3.67%
Wins by 3 goals0.95%
Wins by 4 goals0.19%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.594.79%5.21%
1.579.40%20.60%
2.556.66%43.34%
3.534.27%65.73%
4.517.72%82.28%
5.57.94%92.06%
6.53.13%96.87%
7.51.10%98.90%

Total Goals Real Madrid Over/Under

OverUnder
0.587.29%12.71%
1.561.08%38.92%
2.534.04%65.96%
3.515.44%84.56%
4.55.85%94.15%
5.51.89%98.11%

Total Goals Villarreal Over/Under

OverUnder
0.559.01%40.99%
1.522.46%77.54%
2.56.15%93.85%
3.51.31%98.69%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.574.54%25.46%
1.539.71%60.29%
2.515.89%84.11%
3.55.02%94.98%
4.51.30%98.70%

Score Props

Correct Score

Real Madrid
Villarreal
Score01234
0
5.21%
4.65%
2.07%
0.62%
0.14%
1
10.75%
9.58%
4.27%
1.27%
0.28%
2
11.08%
9.89%
4.41%
1.31%
0.29%
3
7.62%
6.80%
3.03%
0.90%
0.20%
4
3.93%
3.51%
1.56%
0.46%
0.10%
5
1.62%
1.45%
0.65%
0.19%
0.04%
Real Madrid
1-010.75%
2-011.08%
2-19.89%
3-07.62%
3-16.80%
3-23.03%
4-03.93%
4-13.51%
4-21.56%
4-30.46%
5-01.62%
5-11.45%
5-20.65%
5-30.19%
Draw
0-05.21%
1-19.58%
2-24.41%
3-30.90%
4-40.10%
Villarreal
0-14.65%
0-22.07%
1-24.27%
0-30.62%
1-31.27%
2-31.31%
0-40.14%
1-40.28%
2-40.29%
3-40.20%

Correct Score - First Half

Real Madrid
Villarreal
Score0123
0
25.46%
10.51%
2.17%
0.30%
1
24.32%
10.04%
2.07%
0.29%
2
11.61%
4.80%
0.99%
0.14%
3
3.70%
1.53%
0.32%
0.04%
4
0.88%
0.36%
0.08%
0.01%
5
0.17%
0.07%
0.01%
0.00%
Real Madrid
1-024.32%
2-011.61%
2-14.80%
3-03.70%
3-11.53%
3-20.32%
4-00.88%
4-10.36%
5-00.17%
Draw
0-025.46%
1-110.04%
2-20.99%
Villarreal
0-110.51%
0-22.17%
1-22.07%
0-30.30%
1-30.29%
2-30.14%