Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Betis
Valencia 		23.5%
51.9%		24.6%
+185
+182
+180
+180
1.03
1.64		2.67
o2-118
u2+105
o2-120
u2+100
Alaves
Atletico Madrid 		10.5%
70.5%		19.0%
+790
-221
+850
-230
0.65
2.07		2.72
o2¼-123
u2½-119
o2½+105
u2½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Mallorca
Las Palmas 		30.9%
39.6%		29.5%
+180
+192
+180
+190
0.98
1.15		2.13
o2-112
u2-101
o2-115
u2-105
Espanyol
Girona 		18.4%
58.5%		23.0%
+455
-148
+420
-150
0.89
1.79		2.68
o2¼-118
u2½-118
o2½+105
u2½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Barcelona
Celta Vigo 		57.8%
19.5%		22.7%
-142
+351
-150
+346
1.82
0.96		2.78
o3¼-110
u3½-129
o3-135
u3½-135
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 22, 2024
Games for Nov 24, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Valladolid
Osasuna		20.8%
54.4%		24.8%
+475
-143
+490
-160
0
1		-0.55886-0.53577-0.60925
Mallorca
Alaves		22.5%
50.4%		27.1%
+275
+136
+250
+145
0
1		-0.88540-0.92294-0.68470
Athletic Club
Mallorca		43.2%
27.9%		28.8%
+225
+156
+215
+161
0
0		-1.14100-1.13199-1.24417
Osasuna
Real Sociedad		16.5%
60.8%		22.7%
+522
-152
+515
-150
2
0		-1.85119-1.84187-1.80229
Atletico Madrid
Betis		51.8%
23.0%		25.2%
+122
+262
+120
+235
0
1		-1.31137-1.25924-1.47042
Valencia
Getafe		32.6%
37.5%		29.8%
+383
+108
+369
+105
1
1		-1.09682-1.09790-1.20982
Celta Vigo
Leganes		43.9%
27.9%		28.2%
+120
+270
+130
+245
0
3		-1.33579-1.27018-1.27576
Barcelona
Real Madrid		19.7%
57.3%		23.0%
+239
+102
+270
+100
4
0		-1.24855-1.31950-1.62303
Girona
Las Palmas		35.4%
34.9%		29.7%
+185
+167
+180
+165
0
1		-1.01013-1.01140-1.05351
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano		32.5%
37.8%		29.7%
+357
+104
+330
+100
0
1		-0.73424-0.73262-0.97278
Villarreal
Valladolid		42.8%
30.4%		26.7%
+101
+295
-105
+292
2
1		-0.71885-0.70593-0.84774
Sevilla
Espanyol		37.3%
33.6%		29.1%
+150
+211
+146
+200
2
0		-0.94056-0.94660-0.98636
Las Palmas
Valencia		16.7%
60.9%		22.5%
+385
-111
+375
-110
3
2		-1.60083-1.59480-1.79180
Sevilla
Barcelona		9.4%
74.1%		16.4%
+975
-333
+865
-350
1
5		-0.28775-0.29827-0.29943
Getafe
Villarreal		19.2%
56.9%		23.9%
+395
-117
+365
-115
1
1		-1.28957-1.29810-1.43020
Leganes
Atletico Madrid		5.1%
81.9%		13.0%
+811
-233
+800
-250
1
3		-0.38783-0.38537-0.19978
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53619 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56777 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60172
-0.06553
-0.03395

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (11-2-0, 33 pts)25.07.15.980.848.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Real Madrid (8-1-3, 27 pts)24.25.38.581.246.7%99.8%0.2%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (7-1-5, 26 pts)19.76.811.470.64.5%93.3%4.8%0.0%
4Villarreal (7-2-3, 24 pts)16.411.110.559.70.3%33.1%36.1%0.1%
5Osasuna (6-4-3, 21 pts)13.514.59.950.50.0%3.0%13.5%3.0%
6Athletic Club (5-3-5, 20 pts)16.010.211.859.70.0%39.1%34.2%0.0%
7Betis (5-3-5, 20 pts)13.412.512.052.40.0%4.8%22.8%1.0%
8Real Sociedad (5-5-3, 18 pts)14.613.110.254.10.0%11.2%26.7%1.1%
9Mallorca (5-5-3, 18 pts)12.814.910.348.60.0%2.1%8.7%4.3%
10Girona (5-5-3, 18 pts)13.714.310.051.10.0%5.6%14.7%2.9%
11Celta Vigo (5-6-2, 17 pts)13.615.39.149.80.0%3.1%13.5%3.1%
12Rayo Vallecano (4-4-4, 16 pts)11.515.311.245.70.0%0.8%5.8%12.3%
13Sevilla (4-6-3, 15 pts)12.915.110.048.70.0%2.3%9.4%5.0%
14Leganes (3-5-5, 14 pts)8.717.811.537.70.0%0.0%0.3%56.3%
15Alaves (4-8-1, 13 pts)12.417.58.145.30.0%0.8%3.7%15.0%
16Las Palmas (3-7-3, 12 pts)10.217.99.940.60.0%0.1%1.2%38.5%
17Getafe (1-5-7, 10 pts)8.915.313.940.50.0%0.1%1.2%36.0%
18Espanyol (3-8-1, 10 pts)10.918.98.340.90.0%0.2%0.5%37.3%
19Valladolid (2-8-3, 9 pts)8.919.49.736.40.0%0.1%0.0%65.0%
20Valencia (1-6-4, 7 pts)10.715.711.743.70.0%0.5%2.7%19.1%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.