Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Getafe
Alaves 		30.2%
39.1%		30.7%
+320
+108
+307
+102
0.91
1.09		2.00
o2-115
u2+102
o2-120
u2+100
Games for May 17, 2024
Games for May 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Real Madrid
Granada		72.9%
10.2%		16.9%
-173
+458
-175
+440
4
0		-0.48154-0.49722-0.31572
Sevilla
Villarreal		26.7%
47.1%		26.2%
+268
+102
+270
-103
2
3		-0.72602-0.71650-0.75201
Las Palmas
Mallorca		27.2%
44.3%		28.6%
+601
-150
+540
-145
0
1		-0.53801-0.57006-0.81482
Girona
Alaves		32.2%
38.2%		29.6%
+126
+230
+120
+235
2
2		-1.31602-1.30722-1.21672
Granada
Sevilla		18.0%
58.8%		23.2%
+419
-138
+394
-145
0
3		-0.56129-0.57086-0.53064
Almeria
Rayo Vallecano		22.9%
51.9%		25.2%
+480
-150
+460
-159
1
0		-1.78005-1.77049-1.47552
Alaves
Valencia		17.1%
60.0%		23.0%
+290
+123
+305
+118
1
0		-1.37817-1.43167-1.76855
Villarreal
Celta Vigo		30.6%
42.9%		26.5%
+160
+178
+170
+170
2
3		-1.04058-1.01008-0.84623
Betis
Osasuna		33.9%
38.0%		28.1%
+135
+238
+135
+222
2
0		-0.87854-0.89637-1.08149
Atletico Madrid
Mallorca		61.9%
15.3%		22.8%
+115
+316
+118
+277
1
0		-0.79014-0.81991-0.47938
Barcelona
Girona		59.5%
17.8%		22.7%
+138
+192
+140
+182
2
4		-1.09703-1.07061-1.72513
Cadiz
Real Madrid		3.4%
87.3%		9.4%
+885
-265
+800
-290
0
3		-0.34735-0.34579-0.13614
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad		11.9%
68.4%		19.6%
+1025
-294
+875
-295
0
2		-0.31979-0.34013-0.37961
Athletic Club
Getafe		42.2%
28.0%		29.8%
+118
+288
+110
+290
2
0		-0.80786-0.78794-0.86325
Valencia
Barcelona		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+835
-287
+825
-305
2
4		-0.31682-0.32569-0.28124
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.66729 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.67328 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.72987
-0.06258
-0.05659

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (28-1-6, 90 pts)29.91.56.696.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (23-5-7, 76 pts)24.95.47.782.40.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.07.16.978.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (22-9-4, 70 pts)23.79.64.775.70.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
5Athletic Club (17-7-11, 62 pts)18.57.711.867.30.0%0.3%99.7%0.0%
6Betis (14-8-13, 55 pts)15.09.213.858.80.0%0.0%52.1%0.0%
7Real Sociedad (14-9-12, 54 pts)15.110.212.858.00.0%0.0%47.2%0.0%
8Villarreal (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.014.29.851.80.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Valencia (13-13-9, 48 pts)14.214.09.852.30.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
10Getafe (10-12-13, 43 pts)10.913.313.846.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Alaves (11-15-9, 42 pts)11.816.49.845.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (10-14-11, 41 pts)10.915.311.844.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Osasuna (11-17-7, 40 pts)11.918.37.943.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-18-7, 37 pts)11.019.27.840.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Mallorca (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.114.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
16Rayo Vallecano (7-14-14, 35 pts)7.715.614.837.80.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%
17Celta Vigo (8-17-10, 34 pts)8.918.310.837.60.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
18Cadiz (5-16-14, 29 pts)6.017.114.932.90.0%0.0%0.0%93.7%
19Granada (4-22-9, 21 pts)5.123.19.925.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Almeria (2-22-11, 17 pts)2.823.411.820.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.