Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Alaves
Valencia 		17.1%
60.0%		23.0%
+323
+115
+330
+110
0.82
1.78		2.60
o2-102
u2-107
o2+100
u2-120
Almeria
Rayo Vallecano 		22.9%
51.9%		25.2%
+485
-162
+490
-175
0.95
1.58		2.53
o2½-110
u2½-103
o2½-115
u2½+105
Granada
Sevilla 		18.0%
58.8%		23.2%
+400
-140
+409
-145
0.86
1.76		2.62
o2½-122
u2¾-118
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for May 4, 2024
Games for May 10, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Villarreal
Celta Vigo 		30.6%
42.9%		26.5%
+160
+178
+170
+170
2.54
o3+102
u3-114
o3+110
u3-120
1st H
13:00		1
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Betis
Osasuna		33.9%
38.0%		28.1%
+135
+238
+135
+222
2
0		-0.87854-0.89637-1.08149
Atletico Madrid
Mallorca		61.9%
15.3%		22.8%
+115
+316
+118
+277
1
0		-0.79014-0.81991-0.47938
Barcelona
Girona		59.5%
17.8%		22.7%
+138
+192
+140
+182
2
4		-1.09703-1.07061-1.72513
Cadiz
Real Madrid		3.4%
87.3%		9.4%
+885
-265
+800
-290
0
3		-0.34735-0.34579-0.13614
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad		11.9%
68.4%		19.6%
+1025
-294
+875
-295
0
2		-0.31979-0.34013-0.37961
Athletic Club
Getafe		42.2%
28.0%		29.8%
+118
+288
+110
+290
2
0		-0.80786-0.78794-0.86325
Valencia
Barcelona		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+835
-287
+825
-305
2
4		-0.31682-0.32569-0.28124
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal		17.7%
60.4%		21.9%
+362
-120
+346
-125
0
3		-0.62755-0.62982-0.50428
Osasuna
Granada		28.7%
43.9%		27.4%
+249
+142
+240
+150
0
3		-0.90587-0.93805-0.82260
Mallorca
Cadiz		28.7%
41.6%		29.7%
+214
+186
+218
+170
1
1		-1.06613-1.08240-1.21396
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid		18.6%
56.7%		24.7%
+321
-102
+315
-110
1
3		-0.70336-0.69433-0.56697
Celta Vigo
Alaves		32.7%
38.1%		29.2%
+200
+170
+190
+170
0
3		-1.01418-1.03541-0.96469
Getafe
Almeria		32.6%
37.5%		29.9%
+196
+160
+187
+170
3
1		-1.11398-1.07590-1.12061
Girona
Las Palmas		32.8%
37.8%		29.4%
-143
+423
-130
+390
2
0		-0.55236-0.58783-1.11474
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+233
+144
+222
+140
1
0		-1.21878-1.20835-0.59796
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.92190 
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.92896 
DRatings31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.09533
-0.17343
-0.16637

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/29/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (26-1-6, 84 pts)29.41.77.095.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (22-4-7, 73 pts)25.04.98.283.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (22-6-5, 71 pts)23.68.16.377.10.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (20-9-4, 64 pts)22.810.05.273.70.0%95.6%4.4%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-7-10, 58 pts)18.48.311.366.60.0%4.7%95.3%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-8-12, 51 pts)14.79.813.457.60.0%0.0%62.6%0.0%
7Betis (12-8-13, 49 pts)13.99.714.456.00.0%0.0%25.1%0.0%
8Valencia (13-12-8, 47 pts)14.913.79.554.00.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%
9Villarreal (12-12-9, 45 pts)13.813.910.351.80.0%0.0%1.4%0.0%
10Getafe (10-10-13, 43 pts)11.612.114.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-16-6, 39 pts)12.418.27.444.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (9-13-11, 38 pts)10.714.912.444.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Alaves (10-15-8, 38 pts)11.417.39.343.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-16-7, 37 pts)11.717.98.443.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Rayo Vallecano (7-13-13, 34 pts)8.315.314.439.30.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%
16Mallorca (6-13-14, 32 pts)7.415.215.437.70.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%
17Celta Vigo (7-16-10, 31 pts)8.418.111.536.70.0%0.0%0.0%6.6%
18Cadiz (4-15-14, 26 pts)5.317.315.431.20.0%0.0%0.0%90.8%
19Granada (4-20-9, 21 pts)5.422.210.326.60.0%0.0%0.0%99.0%
20Almeria (1-21-11, 14 pts)2.523.112.419.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.