English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tottenham
Chelsea 		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+200
+120
+195
+115
1.09
1.58		2.67
o3½-126
u3¾-118
o3½-125
u3½+105
Games for May 1, 2024
Games for May 3, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
Burnley
Manchester United		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+465
-197
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68072-1.64046-1.62923
Crystal Palace
Fulham		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+264
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31494-1.28497-1.27029
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1200
-433
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22846-0.24222-0.27830
Luton Town
Wolverhampton		12.0%
68.3%		19.7%
+295
-108
+290
-105
1
2		-0.68065-0.69699-0.38120
Liverpool
West Ham United		56.1%
20.8%		23.1%
-178
+430
-180
+440
2
2		-1.62501-1.62090-1.46534
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		66.9%
13.6%		19.5%
-271
+727
-297
+720
4
0		-0.33876-0.32899-0.40125
Sheffield United
Manchester United		7.4%
77.9%		14.7%
+800
-314
+750
-330
2
4		-0.30562-0.31128-0.24923
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		32.2%
39.4%		28.3%
+127
+214
+125
+200
0
2		-1.17380-1.14907-0.93052
Liverpool
Everton		59.9%
18.2%		21.9%
-245
+670
-260
+650
0
2		-2.06609-2.06168-1.70479
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		24.1%
49.3%		26.6%
+149
+193
+146
+175
1
0		-0.92181-0.94551-1.42358
Chelsea
Arsenal		17.8%
59.9%		22.2%
+656
-243
+675
-250
0
5		-0.37469-0.37512-0.51203
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks33-0-0 (1.000)0-0.52411 
Sportsbooks33-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55779 
DRatings32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.79260
-0.26849
-0.23481

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/21/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (23-5-5, 74 pts)25.46.26.382.615.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Liverpool (22-3-8, 74 pts)24.84.09.283.713.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Manchester City (22-3-7, 73 pts)26.23.78.186.771.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-8-6, 66 pts)21.29.77.170.70.0%76.7%23.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-8-6, 60 pts)20.310.17.668.40.0%23.0%72.3%0.0%
6Newcastle United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.613.76.759.60.0%0.1%1.4%0.0%
7Manchester United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.313.96.758.70.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-12-9, 48 pts)14.113.910.052.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (13-10-8, 47 pts)16.111.910.058.40.0%0.2%2.3%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (11-10-11, 44 pts)12.812.512.651.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (12-14-7, 43 pts)13.316.48.448.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Fulham (12-16-6, 42 pts)13.417.76.947.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (11-13-9, 42 pts)12.415.210.447.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (9-15-9, 36 pts)10.616.910.442.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Brentford (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.318.69.140.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Everton (10-15-8, 32 pts)11.717.09.338.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-18-9, 26 pts)8.120.09.930.20.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
18Luton Town (6-21-7, 25 pts)6.823.28.028.50.0%0.0%0.0%80.8%
19Burnley (5-21-8, 23 pts)6.122.79.227.50.0%0.0%0.0%84.6%
20Sheffield United (3-23-7, 16 pts)4.125.68.320.50.0%0.0%0.0%99.8%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.