Luton Town at Derby County

Updated

Luton Town

30.5%27.2%42.3%
Luton Town WinDrawDerby County Win
0.99Projected Goals 1.38
2Final Score 2

Derby County

Last 5 Games

Luton Town
Money Line
W 2-0 at Millwall+205
T 0-0 vs Huddersfield-105
W 0-5 vs Coventry City+180
L 1-2 at Bournemouth+425
T 3-3 vs Swansea City+120
Derby County
Money Line
T 0-0 at Preston North End+315
T 0-0 vs Swansea City+160
W 0-1 vs Reading+115
L 0-1 at Sheffield United+500
W 1-2 vs Stoke City+280

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.3%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:4.8%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Luton Town+185+145+160+167+143+160+167+174.1
Derby County+150+200+195+199+202+195+202+206.9
Draw+215+210+205+215+215+205+215+223.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Luton Town+175---+130+155+155+174.1
Derby County+175---+180+200+200+206.9
Draw+210---+195+210+210+223.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Luton Town: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Luton Town: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Luton Town: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Luton Town: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Luton Town ML moved from +154 to +144
Derby County ML moved from +215 to +195

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Luton Town: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Derby County: 30.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Luton Town: 0.0%
Derby County: 40.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Luton Town: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Luton Town: 0.0%
Derby County: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Luton Town ML moved from +150 to +135
Derby County ML moved from +230 to +200

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.9%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2-145o2-122o2-120o2-119-o2-120o2-119o2-112
Underu2+120u2+102u2+100u2+106-u2+100u2+106u2+112
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o2-112
Under-----u2+112

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes47.1%
 
No52.9%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 09.35%
Exactly 226.25%
Exactly 412.29%
Exactly 62.30%
Exactly 80.23%
 
Exactly 122.15%
Exactly 320.74%
Exactly 55.83%
Exactly 70.78%
Exact Goals Scored - Luton Town
Exactly 037.09%
Exactly 136.79%
Exactly 218.25%
Exactly 36.03%
Exactly 41.50%
Exactly 50.30%
Exact Goals Scored - Derby County
Exactly 025.20%
Exactly 134.73%
Exactly 223.94%
Exactly 311.00%
Exactly 43.79%
Exactly 51.04%
Exactly 60.24%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 033.37%
Exactly 220.10%
Exactly 42.02%
 
Exactly 136.62%
Exactly 37.35%
Exactly 50.44%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Luton Town
Exactly 063.17%
Exactly 129.01%
Exactly 26.66%
Exactly 31.02%
Exactly 40.12%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Derby County
Exactly 052.83%
Exactly 133.71%
Exactly 210.76%
Exactly 32.29%
Exactly 40.37%

Alternate Props

Spread

Luton Town
Wins by 2+ goals9.75%
Wins by 3+ goals2.67%
Wins by 4+ goals0.55%
Derby County
Wins by 2+ goals21.76%
Wins by 3+ goals8.08%
Wins by 4+ goals2.40%
Wins by 5+ goals0.56%

Exact Winning Margin

Luton Town
Derby County
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Luton Town
Wins by 1 goal17.23%
Wins by 2 goals7.08%
Wins by 3 goals2.11%
Wins by 4 goals0.48%
Derby County
Wins by 1 goal23.94%
Wins by 2 goals13.68%
Wins by 3 goals5.68%
Wins by 4 goals1.83%
Wins by 5 goals0.48%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.590.65%9.35%
1.568.50%31.50%
2.542.25%57.75%
3.521.51%78.49%
4.59.22%90.78%
5.53.39%96.61%
6.51.09%98.91%

Total Goals Luton Town Over/Under

OverUnder
0.562.91%37.09%
1.526.13%73.87%
2.57.88%92.12%
3.51.85%98.15%

Total Goals Derby County Over/Under

OverUnder
0.574.80%25.20%
1.540.07%59.93%
2.516.13%83.87%
3.55.13%94.87%
4.51.34%98.66%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.566.63%33.37%
1.530.00%70.00%
2.59.91%90.09%
3.52.56%97.44%

Score Props

Correct Score

Luton Town
Derby County
Score012345
0
9.35%
12.88%
8.88%
4.08%
1.41%
0.39%
1
9.27%
12.78%
8.81%
4.05%
1.39%
0.38%
2
4.60%
6.34%
4.37%
2.01%
0.69%
0.19%
3
1.52%
2.10%
1.44%
0.66%
0.23%
0.06%
4
0.38%
0.52%
0.36%
0.16%
0.06%
0.02%
Luton Town
1-09.27%
2-04.60%
2-16.34%
3-01.52%
3-12.10%
3-21.44%
4-00.38%
4-10.52%
4-20.36%
4-30.16%
Draw
0-09.35%
1-112.78%
2-24.37%
3-30.66%
Derby County
0-112.88%
0-28.88%
1-28.81%
0-34.08%
1-34.05%
2-32.01%
0-41.41%
1-41.39%
2-40.69%
3-40.23%
0-50.39%
1-50.38%
2-50.19%

Correct Score - First Half

Luton Town
Derby County
Score01234
0
33.37%
21.30%
6.80%
1.45%
0.23%
1
15.33%
9.78%
3.12%
0.66%
0.11%
2
3.52%
2.25%
0.72%
0.15%
0.02%
3
0.54%
0.34%
0.11%
0.02%
0.00%
Luton Town
1-015.33%
2-03.52%
2-12.25%
3-00.54%
3-10.34%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-033.37%
1-19.78%
2-20.72%
Derby County
0-121.30%
0-26.80%
1-23.12%
0-31.45%
1-30.66%
2-30.15%
0-40.23%
1-40.11%
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