English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
Southampton 		73.6%
10.4%		16.0%
-285
+800
-315
+975
2.47
0.82		3.29
o3¼-110
u3½-125
o3½+110
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Manchester United
Ipswich Town 		55.5%
20.7%		23.8%
-152
+420
-165
+435
1.72
0.95		2.67
o3+103
u3-113
o3+110
u3-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.2%		9.2%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.13716
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United		32.1%
37.7%		30.2%
-145
+405
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55210-0.55621-1.13522
Newcastle United
Burnley		40.8%
31.2%		28.0%
+101
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.72247-0.73639-0.89637
Fulham
Brentford		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+244
+109
+235
+105
0
0		-1.38625-1.38721-1.31193
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.2%		12.0%
+1225
-444
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23414-0.22666-0.19600
Everton
Luton Town		53.8%
21.7%		24.5%
+152
+181
+150
+180
1
1		-1.33895-1.31119-1.40678
Tottenham
Chelsea		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.92920-0.91854-0.72313
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
Burnley
Manchester United		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+465
-197
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68072-1.64046-1.62923
Crystal Palace
Fulham		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+264
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.31494-1.28497-1.27029
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1200
-433
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22846-0.24222-0.27830
Luton Town
Wolverhampton		12.0%
68.3%		19.7%
+295
-108
+290
-105
1
2		-0.68065-0.69699-0.38120
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18652 
Sportsbooks72-3-2 (0.429)0-1.18702 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.21848
-0.03196
-0.03146

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.