English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
West Ham United
Newcastle United 		16.8%
61.8%		21.3%
+544
-195
+540
-210
0.91
1.96		2.87
o3-115
u3¼-119
o3-115
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Nov 24, 2024
Games for Nov 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		18.9%
57.5%		23.5%
+540
-183
+520
-185
0
2		-0.46077-0.47683-0.55262
Fulham
Sheffield United		40.3%
31.1%		28.6%
-138
+382
-140
+375
3
3		-1.44358-1.45736-1.25222
Everton
Bournemouth		31.5%
41.0%		27.5%
+230
+120
+220
+120
1
2		-0.81240-0.82865-0.89165
Luton Town
Tottenham		4.5%
85.5%		10.0%
+1150
-473
+1050
-520
1
2		-0.21944-0.22386-0.15682
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest		39.3%
31.3%		29.4%
+247
+128
+236
+125
1
1		-1.24445-1.24448-1.22441
Burnley
Chelsea		9.1%
74.2%		16.6%
+1009
-360
+975
-405
2
2		-1.90200-1.91950-1.79306
West Ham United
Newcastle United		20.6%
56.2%		23.2%
+295
-116
+290
-120
3
4		-0.64903-0.65089-0.57608
Aston Villa
West Ham United		26.0%
48.7%		25.3%
+183
+148
+170
+160
1
1		-1.34079-1.33325-1.37543
Tottenham
Fulham		49.8%
25.6%		24.6%
+104
+243
+108
+240
0
3		-1.25787-1.25460-1.36227
Nottingham Forest
Luton Town		38.7%
32.1%		29.1%
+165
+173
+161
+170
1
1		-1.31819-1.30155-1.23381
Brentford
Burnley		26.9%
45.9%		27.1%
+123
+221
+125
+215
1
2		-1.19465-1.18633-0.77829
Luton Town
Bournemouth		13.1%
66.9%		19.9%
+468
-187
+475
-200
3
4		-0.45798-0.44915-0.40139
Newcastle United
Chelsea		19.8%
56.7%		23.5%
+305
-116
+290
-120
2
3		-0.64074-0.65089-0.56754
Manchester City
Liverpool		37.5%
35.0%		27.5%
+105
+249
+100
+240
1
1		-1.40842-1.41799-1.29226
Nottingham Forest
Brighton and Hove Albion		12.5%
67.7%		19.8%
+440
-154
+418
-140
0
1		-0.51896-0.54898-0.39044
Burnley
West Ham United		16.6%
61.5%		21.9%
+440
-152
+440
-160
2
2		-1.45013-1.45453-1.52083
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.88920 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87364 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.87122
0.01798
0.00242

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (9-1-1, 28 pts)24.36.57.280.252.6%98.5%0.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-2-2, 23 pts)23.66.67.878.640.9%98.5%1.0%0.0%
3Chelsea (5-2-4, 19 pts)17.49.411.263.40.9%47.8%19.1%0.0%
4Arsenal (5-2-4, 19 pts)19.58.010.569.15.0%79.9%9.3%0.0%
5Nottingham Forest (5-2-4, 19 pts)12.714.211.249.20.0%1.2%1.8%2.2%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (5-2-4, 19 pts)16.010.611.459.40.2%19.5%15.1%0.0%
7Fulham (5-3-3, 18 pts)13.713.810.451.70.0%4.2%4.4%2.0%
8Newcastle United (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.112.210.656.00.1%8.8%10.7%0.3%
9Aston Villa (5-3-3, 18 pts)15.312.010.656.60.0%11.1%9.2%0.0%
10Tottenham (5-5-1, 16 pts)16.912.88.459.00.3%20.5%16.2%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-1, 16 pts)12.816.88.446.90.0%0.5%1.3%4.8%
12Manchester United (4-4-3, 15 pts)14.912.710.455.10.0%8.9%9.2%0.4%
13Bournemouth (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.915.610.546.10.0%0.4%1.3%6.8%
14West Ham United (3-5-3, 12 pts)11.116.310.543.90.0%0.1%0.2%12.1%
15Everton (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.717.011.240.40.0%0.0%0.2%25.6%
16Leicester City (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.317.611.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%33.6%
17Ipswich Town (1-5-5, 8 pts)7.518.611.934.40.0%0.0%0.0%63.7%
18Crystal Palace (1-6-4, 7 pts)9.417.011.539.80.0%0.1%0.0%27.5%
19Wolverhampton (1-7-3, 6 pts)8.918.510.537.30.0%0.0%0.1%43.9%
20Southampton (1-9-1, 4 pts)7.921.88.232.10.0%0.0%0.0%77.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.