English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion 		11.3%
71.4%		17.3%
+608
-231
+595
-250
0.80
2.32		3.12
o3¼-106
u3½-134
o3½+120
u3½-135
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Newcastle United		23.8%
51.5%		24.7%
+385
-121
+380
-125
0
4		-0.61572-0.62066-0.66380
Southampton
Crystal Palace		18.0%
60.0%		22.1%
+280
+110
+270
+108
0
1		-0.77319-0.77653-0.51153
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		37.6%
33.5%		28.8%
+140
+210
+136
+205
1
4		-1.16424-1.16405-1.09270
Wolverhampton
Brentford		27.6%
44.7%		27.6%
+252
+115
+250
+110
1
1		-1.29737-1.29931-1.28706
Tottenham
Bournemouth		64.3%
15.5%		20.1%
-133
+408
-139
+400
3
2		-0.58641-0.58776-0.44094
Manchester City
Leicester City		76.5%
9.0%		14.5%
-241
+894
-260
+680
1
0		-0.31906-0.37273-0.26763
Bournemouth
West Ham United		10.3%
72.9%		16.8%
+490
-164
+510
-170
0
2		-0.51126-0.50526-0.31549
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.0%
67.2%		18.8%
+233
+125
+225
+130
2
1		-1.23141-1.21130-1.96876
Arsenal
Southampton		57.1%
20.4%		22.4%
-211
+594
-215
+600
1
1		-1.59904-1.55932-1.49424
Leicester City
Wolverhampton		26.4%
47.7%		26.0%
+215
+138
+230
+134
4
0		-1.17866-1.22241-1.33363
Fulham
Leeds United		23.5%
52.0%		24.6%
+248
+110
+255
+105
3
2		-1.27956-1.30593-1.45021
Brentford
Aston Villa		24.2%
51.1%		24.8%
+267
+109
+280
+105
0
4		-0.76548-0.76194-0.67201
Manchester United
Chelsea		20.1%
56.8%		23.1%
+247
+115
+253
+120
1
1		-1.31152-1.26567-1.46620
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		5.9%
81.5%		12.6%
+1325
-420
+1225
-480
1
3		-0.22925-0.23413-0.20507
Crystal Palace
Everton		31.9%
40.1%		28.1%
+207
+159
+200
+155
0
3		-0.98350-0.97814-0.91444
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest		70.0%
11.3%		18.6%
-280
+875
-355
+1000
0
1		-2.28908-2.43235-2.17692
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/25/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (10-1-1, 31 pts)24.66.27.181.161.2%99.2%0.6%0.0%
2Manchester City (7-3-2, 23 pts)23.37.37.477.229.0%96.5%2.5%0.0%
3Arsenal (6-2-4, 22 pts)20.07.710.270.37.1%84.2%8.4%0.0%
4Chelsea (6-2-4, 22 pts)17.89.211.064.51.8%47.9%20.2%0.0%
5Brighton and Hove Albion (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.610.211.261.00.4%24.2%20.0%0.0%
6Tottenham (6-5-1, 19 pts)17.612.48.060.80.2%27.0%17.8%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (5-3-4, 19 pts)12.214.711.147.70.0%0.6%0.9%3.7%
8Aston Villa (5-3-4, 19 pts)15.011.811.356.20.2%8.2%9.5%0.2%
9Newcastle United (5-4-3, 18 pts)14.812.810.354.80.0%5.3%7.5%0.4%
10Fulham (5-4-3, 18 pts)13.414.510.150.30.0%1.8%2.6%1.6%
11Brentford (5-5-2, 17 pts)12.416.78.946.10.0%0.7%0.4%4.3%
12Manchester United (4-4-4, 16 pts)14.312.511.254.10.1%4.2%8.0%0.6%
13Bournemouth (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.716.110.245.30.0%0.1%0.6%7.4%
14West Ham United (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.616.110.345.20.0%0.0%0.7%8.9%
15Everton (2-5-5, 11 pts)9.616.412.040.70.0%0.1%0.2%24.9%
16Leicester City (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.117.911.038.30.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
17Wolverhampton (2-7-3, 9 pts)9.718.210.139.20.0%0.0%0.1%32.4%
18Ipswich Town (1-5-6, 9 pts)7.218.112.734.20.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Crystal Palace (1-6-5, 8 pts)9.116.912.139.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.6%
20Southampton (1-10-1, 4 pts)7.922.37.831.60.0%0.0%0.0%79.5%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.